{"id":25853,"date":"2021-02-09T09:57:54","date_gmt":"2021-02-09T09:57:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/?p=25853"},"modified":"2021-02-09T09:57:55","modified_gmt":"2021-02-09T09:57:55","slug":"fibre-broadband-association-challenges-starinks-capacity-to-deliver","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/index.php\/2021\/02\/fibre-broadband-association-challenges-starinks-capacity-to-deliver.html","title":{"rendered":"Fibre Broadband Association Challenges Starink’s Capacity to Deliver"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Fiber Broadband Association<\/a>, which represents FTTP<\/a> networks and suppliers in the USA, has published a new study that claims Elon Musk’s new constellation of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) based Starlink<\/a> broadband satellites will face a “capacity shortfall<\/em>” by 2028 and over 56% of their “RDOF subscribers<\/em>” (rural) may not be fully served.<\/p>\n

At present SpaceX has already lofted over 1,000 LEOs into orbit (space) and their initial ambition is to deploy a total of 4,425 by 2024, which could potentially be followed by up to 12,000 at a later date (possibly late 2026). The LEOs sit at a low altitude and can thus deliver fast latency times (c.20-40ms), as well as downloads of around 100Mbps and uploads of 20Mbps (largely proven by the recent beta test), but the catch is that you need lots of them to deliver good performance and coverage (expensive).<\/p>\n

NOTE:<\/strong> The Rural Digital Opportunity Fund (RDOF) is an FCC initiative designed to inject billions of dollars to support the rollout of new rural focused broadband networks.<\/div>\n

The Starlink<\/a> service, which has generally had a fairly successful beta, is now in the process of opening itself up to taking early pre-orders in the UK (and other countries) ahead of their initial commercial launch later this year (expect to pay a refundable $99 deposit). At this stage their website still doesn’t state what the final package(s) will look like, but hopefully those details should follow soon (the beta cost \u00a389 [$99] per month, plus \u00a354 for shipping and \u00a3439 [$499] for the kit).<\/p>\n

Despite this not everybody is happy with the new constellation, particularly those who would rather see such investment being put toward better fixed line solutions on the ground. In keeping with that the FBA and NTCA<\/a> (Rural Broadband Association) have submitted to the FCC a technical assessment and model to “aid the agency\u2019s efforts to scrutinize the RDOF long-form applications for LEO Satellite<\/a> broadband networks<\/em>.”<\/p>\n

The FCC awarded almost $900m (c.\u00a3650m) of assigned RDOF funds to SpaceX™ with a commitment to connect 640,000 locations across the U.S. with its Starlink<\/a>™ satellite<\/a> broadband technology at the 100Mbps\/20Mbps broadband performance tier.<\/p>\n

The sample analysis conducted by Cartesian, based upon current publicly available information, estimates that Starlink<\/a> would “face a capacity shortfall by 2028 and over 56% of Starlink\u2019s RDOF subscribers would not be fully served<\/em>.” The FBA\/NTCA are esentially saying that over 56% of subscribers would experience service degradation during peak (busy) periods, which will worsen and “significantly impact all its awarded RDOF locations<\/em>” if Starlink\u2019s broadband capacity is also offered to (non-RDOF) commercial subscribers.<\/p>\n

Gary Bolton, President and CEO at the FBA, said:<\/strong><\/p>\n

“The Fiber Broadband Association continues to work toward a better broadband future for everyone. We\u2019re collaborating with organizations across the globe to advance broadband initiatives, like RDOF, to boost opportunities for work, education and economic development. We applaud the FCC\u2019s efforts to provide broadband subsidies as we work to eliminate the rural and urban digital divide.<\/p>\n

Our goal with our latest FCC filing is to provide tools and technical analysis that will support more indicative assessments of incipient technologies so that the agency can ensure that RDOF winners can deliver the broadband performance promised.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Sadly, the FBA and NTCA did not make the details of their model and analysis available as part of their announcement, which makes it very difficult for us to assess how they’ve reached their conclusions and what severity of impact upon performance they actually anticipate.<\/p>\n

Network contention is a reality for pretty much all consumer facing broadband networks (fixed line or otherwise), which means that limited capacity usually has to be shared between many users in order to find the right balance between an affordable product (\u00a389 per month is very expensive for most people, which may at least keep early demand under control) and an economically viable operating model. But the more you share out that capacity to lower the cost, the greater the risk of network congestion (slower speeds, particularly at peak times).<\/p>\n

Financial analyst firm Cowen<\/a> attempted to analyse this last year, but their contention model was overly-simplistic and we’d expect higher contention than they predicted (here<\/a>). Under Cowen’s prediction, which assumed the unrealistic position of 100% efficiency (and a top capability of 20Gbps per satellite<\/a>), a full constellation of 12,000 LEOs could deliver 100Mbps to 485,000 simultaneous users (or 1.5 million using a 3 x over-subscription model). However, it’s hard to judge any of this until we know how much contention SpaceX will apply, but equally there are some very real limits at play.<\/p>\n

In short, the FBA\/NTCA study, regardless of their clear vested interests, does raise an important point for consideration, albeit one that we can’t effectively judge until we know more about the model in their analysis and how Starlink’s commercial packages will actually be positioned (prices, speeds etc.). Until then it’s somewhat of a guessing game. Lest we forget that Starlink has already talked about developing a 10Gbps (per user) capable service in the future (here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

We should add that the same consideration will be a factor for the rival OneWeb<\/a> constellation too, in fact it’s a much bigger issue for OneWeb<\/a> given that they will have a significantly smaller network.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Fiber Broadband Association, which represents FTTP networks and suppliers in the USA, has published a new study that claims Elon Musk’s new constellation of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) based Starlink broadband satellites will face a “capacity shortfall” by 2028 and over 56% of their “RDOF subscribers” (rural) may not be fully served.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20949,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[56,77,477],"class_list":["post-25853","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uk_isp_news","tag-fttp","tag-satellite","tag-science"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"yoast_head":"\nFibre Broadband Association Challenges Starink's Capacity to Deliver - ISPreview UK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Fiber Broadband Association, which represents FTTP networks and suppliers in the USA, has published a new study that claims Elon Musk's new\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/index.php\/2021\/02\/fibre-broadband-association-challenges-starinks-capacity-to-deliver.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fibre Broadband Association Challenges Starink's Capacity to Deliver - 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