{"id":28381,"date":"2021-09-08T08:41:03","date_gmt":"2021-09-08T07:41:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/?p=28381"},"modified":"2021-09-08T08:41:03","modified_gmt":"2021-09-08T07:41:03","slug":"study-warns-internet-fibre-optic-links-at-risk-from-huge-solar-storm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/index.php\/2021\/09\/study-warns-internet-fibre-optic-links-at-risk-from-huge-solar-storm.html","title":{"rendered":"Study Warns Internet Fibre Optic Links at Risk from Huge Solar Storm"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Once every 100 years or so our sun emits a massive Coronal Mass Ejection (CMEs) and these can be enough to cause damage to certain electrical systems, satellites and power grids etc. But a new study has also warned of an &#8220;<em>internet apocalypse<\/em>&#8221; because the next such event could knock out critical submarine fibre optic cables.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>The last major solar storm like this happened in 1859 (<strong>Carrington event<\/strong>) &#8211; causing significant damage to the old telegraph network of the day, which was followed by a similar event in 1921. In short, we&#8217;re perhaps due another one and that&#8217;s a problem because a lot of our modern technological society has evolved without having to experience such things (i.e. some electrical systems may not be as well-prepared as we&#8217;d like).<\/p>\n<p>Just to clarify. CMEs are large expulsions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun&#8217;s corona. When this hits the Earth it can interact with our planet&#8217;s magnetic field and produce <strong>Geomagnetically Induced Currents<\/strong> (GIC) on the crust, which can in turn enter and damage long conductors, such as power lines.<\/p>\n<p>At this point some people may be scratching their heads and wondering how this could possibly impact optical fibre cables, which don&#8217;t use electrical signals or wires to transmit data and instead work by sending laser light over glass (silica) or plastic fibres. According to the &#8216;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ics.uci.edu\/~sabdujyo\/papers\/sigcomm21-cme.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Solar Superstorms: Planning for an Internet Apocalypse<\/strong><\/a>&#8216; study, the issue isn&#8217;t the fibre, but rather the repeaters that are needed to boost such signals (these are often spaced at intervals of 50 &#8211; 150km and are powered using a conductor, which were found to be vulnerable to GIC-induced failures).<\/p>\n<p>According to <strong>Sangeetha Abdu Jyothi<\/strong>, who helped to write the study and is Assistant Professor of Computer Science at UC Irvine, &#8220;<em>We have NO IDEA how resilient the current Internet infrastructure is against the threat of CMEs!<\/em>&#8221; Now consider that astrophysicists estimate the likelihood of a solar storm of sufficient strength to cause catastrophic disruption occurring within the next decade to be 1.6 &#8211; 12%, which is uncomfortably high.<\/p>\n<div class=\"bq2\"><strong>NOTE:<\/strong> The study was conducted by researchers from the University of California, Irvine and VMware Research.<\/div>\n<blockquote><p><span style=\"color: #339966;\"><strong>Summary of Key Findings<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u27a4 The distribution of Internet infrastructure is skewed when compared to the distribution of Internet users. The infrastructure concentration in higher latitudes poses a greater risk during solar storms.<\/p>\n<p>\u27a4 The investigation on the impact of GIC shows that submarine cables have a higher risk of failure compared to land cables. This is primarily due to their large lengths.<\/p>\n<p>\u27a4 The US is one of the most vulnerable locations with a high risk of disconnection from Europe during extreme solar events. Intra-continental connections in Europe are at a lower risk due to the presence of a large number of shorter land and submarine cables interconnecting the continent.<\/p>\n<p>\u27a4 In Asia, Singapore will retain good connectivity to neighbouring countries even under severe storms. Chinese cities are more prone to lose connectivity than Indian cities because they connect to much longer cables. The cables running along the eastern and western coasts of Africa are less prone to failures.<\/p>\n<p>\u27a4 The cable between Brazil and Europe has less probability of being affected compared to cables connecting the US and Europe.<\/p>\n<p>\u27a4 Australia, New Zealand, and other island countries in the region will lose most of their long-distance connections. But local connectivity, as well as connections to Singapore, are less vulnerable.<\/p>\n<p>\u27a4 A large fraction of ASes have a presence in vulnerable regions, however, the vast majority have a small spread. The extent of impact on an AS and its customers will depend on a combination of these factors.<\/p>\n<p>\u27a4 Google data centers have a better spread, particularly in Asia and South America. Facebook is more vulnerable.<\/p>\n<p>\u27a4 DNS root servers are highly distributed and hence not vulnerable.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>A few key takeaways from the above. The impact of such a major CME would not be uniform across the globe, but &#8220;<em>higher latitudes are at a higher risk<\/em>&#8221; and that&#8217;s a problem because most subsea fibre optic cables are concentrated between America, the UK and Europe. Data centres are also concentrated in more vulnerable regions.<\/p>\n<p>One positive is a that CME which originates in the sun reaches the earth at least 13 hours, but typically 1-3 days, later. This provides the infrastructure operators with a limited opportunity to devise a shutdown strategy that minimizes connectivity loss during and after impact. In power grids, since GIC is superimposed with generated current, a key strategy involves reducing or completely shutting down power generation.<\/p>\n<p>A similar method could work, despite being hugely disruptive, to protect internet connectivity across the globe. However, this only provides limited protection since GIC can flow through a powered-off cable and there&#8217;s huge uncertainty about the challenges of switching back on so much infrastructure post-event.<\/p>\n<p>But of course the human race has shown, most recently with COVID-19, that even when we know a major threat is likely to occur, then we often still end up being woefully underprepared for when it actually hits. Getting our political leaders to take such inevitable events seriously and take real action has often proven to be a major stumbling block, with many preferring to wait until one punches them square in the face.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, countries that put more effort into preparation for such things will suffer significantly less economic harm post-event, which could also be seen as a competitive advantage post-event. One way or another, these events will happen, and probably sooner than some people expect.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Once every 100 years or so our sun emits a massive Coronal Mass Ejection (CMEs) and these can be enough to cause damage to certain electrical systems, satellites and power grids etc. But a new study has also warned of an &#8220;internet apocalypse&#8221; because the next such event could knock out critical submarine fibre optic [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":28383,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[52,477,479],"class_list":["post-28381","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uk_isp_news","tag-fibre-optic","tag-science","tag-security"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - 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