{"id":32824,"date":"2022-11-06T00:01:41","date_gmt":"2022-11-06T00:01:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/?p=32824"},"modified":"2022-11-06T09:23:00","modified_gmt":"2022-11-06T09:23:00","slug":"numis-report-on-cityfibre-reveals-new-details-of-uk-fttp-broadband-build","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/index.php\/2022\/11\/numis-report-on-cityfibre-reveals-new-details-of-uk-fttp-broadband-build.html","title":{"rendered":"Numis Report on Cityfibre Reveals New Details of UK FTTP Broadband Build"},"content":{"rendered":"

A new research report from investment bank Numis<\/a>, which was pieced together by analyst John Karidis, has revealed some useful information about Cityfibre<\/a>’s \u00a35bn project to deploy a new gigabit-capable Fibre-to-the-Premises (FTTP<\/a>) broadband ISP network across the UK and their perspective on overbuild and prices vs Openreach<\/a> (BT<\/a>) etc.<\/p>\n

Just to recap. Cityfibre<\/a> (CF) currently has enough funding (Numis estimates c.\u00a32.4bn equity and c.\u00a34.9bn debt) to cover up to 8 million premises – across around 285 cities, towns and villages (c.30% of the UK) – by the end of 2025 (here<\/a>). So far, the operator has already covered 2 million UK premises – with 1.8m Ready For Service<\/strong> (RFS) via a supporting ISP (here<\/a>). The network is also expected to pass around 800k businesses, 400k local authority sites and 250k 5G<\/a> access points.<\/p>\n

NOTE:<\/strong> CF is supported by ISPs such as Vodafone<\/a> (Gigafast Broadband<\/a><\/strong>), TalkTalk<\/a> (Future Fibre<\/strong><\/a>), Zen Internet<\/a>, Giganet, iDNET<\/a> and others, but they aren\u2019t all live or available in every location yet.<\/div>\n

The new analyst note reveals that CF’s build costs remain around \u00a3500 per premises<\/strong> and the efficiencies they’ve found in this process are currently “offsetting most inflation pressures<\/em>“, although the operator does remain a “little exposed to rising interest rates<\/em>“, consistent with its financing obligation to hedge at least 70% of its debt over 5 year.<\/p>\n

Total premises passed with FTTP<\/a> are predicted to reach c.2.5 million at the end of 2022, including c.2.1 million Ready-for-Service<\/strong> (RFS) – the latter is where ISPs allow you to actually take the broadband service. The operator’s build rate is said to have now exceeded c.1.1 million premises per year and continues to grow.<\/p>\n

“Near term, CF is managing its build rate so as not to miss opportunities to win government [e.g. Project Gigabit] subsidies to augment its planned commercial build. Thus, we think CF will deliver its 2022 year-end run rate in 2023, at a minimum<\/em>,” said the report. CF has previously hinted that they might be able to reach 9 million or more premises if they win enough Project Gigabit contracts, so it’s a serious prospect for them, provided they can outbid Openreach<\/a> and others on the larger regional contracts.<\/p>\n

\"CityFibre-FTTP-Premises-Passed-and-Build-Rate-Nov-2022\"<\/p>\n

The operator is currently forecast to have 144,000 connected lines, which is up 60% over the past 6 months or so and they appear to be growing this number at a rate of c. 15,000 per month (6 months ago it was more like 9,000 per month). Put another way, customer penetration across CF’s RFS footprint – where ISPs now allow you to take the service – is climbing at a rate of c.1% a month. In some cities where CF networks are complete, customer take-up is already said to be >20% and rising monthly, although they don’t provide any examples.<\/p>\n

Overbuild and Competition<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

The analyst then switches to examine how much overbuild and competition Cityfibre<\/a> faces, which reveals some interesting information. Firstly, it’s noted that Vodafone<\/a> and TalkTalk<\/a> (two of Cityfibre’s biggest ISPs) have yet to connect to 100% of their committed footprints on the new network.<\/p>\n

Currently, Vodafone<\/a> and TalkTalk<\/a> sell in 88% and 82% of CF’s available footprint, which we suspect may partly reflect the natural gap between new build completion and ISP onboarding of the new streets \/ areas etc.<\/p>\n

NOTE:<\/strong> The report states that CF sells two main products at wholesale, 160Mbps (symmetric speed) for \u00a313 +vat per month and 1Gbps for \u00a317.5 per month. This is NOT the same as retail prices, since ISPs have to add lots of extras (profit margin, VAT, services etc.).<\/div>\n

The report goes on to note that TalkTalk has recently become the subject of much speculation, not least with respect to the possibility of Virgin Media<\/a> (VMO2) scooping up the operator for \u00a33bn. But that proposal appears to have been shelved (here<\/a>). Nevertheless, the analyst states that TalkTalk’s “long-term contractual commitments to CF will remain in place regardless of any potential future change of ownership<\/em>,” although it’s often unwise to assume such things – major contracts do sometimes get broken.<\/p>\n

Similarly, the analyst states that it’s “only a matter of time<\/em>” before Sky Broadband<\/a> starts to wholesale over CF’s network as well, which is something that we’ve been expecting for the past few years (Sky has previously been openly courting alternative networks). But so far the provider hasn’t joined any AltNets and seems to have stuck with Openreach<\/a> instead.<\/p>\n

“The alternative scenario for Sky is that it continues to live with a material (input) cost disadvantage versus meaningful competitors such as [Vodafone] and [TalkTalk]<\/em>,” said the report. But they seem to forget that Sky might also have a strong interest in a third option, which could see them tie a wholesale agreement with Virgin Media<\/a> and \/ or VMO2’s new fibre joint venture.<\/p>\n

At this point the analyst also touches on the issue of overbuild between rival networks. At present, CF’s network is said to have an overbuild with Virgin Media<\/a>’s cable infrastructure of 62% (plus another 2% if adding Virgin’s FTTP<\/a> lines), which drops to around just 25% if only looking at Openreach’s FTTP network.<\/p>\n

None of this is surprising, as OR’s fibre coverage is less than Virgin’s cable, but all three operators focus on commercial urban areas. Generally, big urban areas should be able to support four or more gigabit-capable operators. In terms of CF’s overbuild with other alternative networks (often smaller players), the figure is “negligible<\/em>” at around 1%, but that will change over the next few years.<\/p>\n

The report then states this – “we think VMO2 may well become a CF customer to extract more revenue synergies from its nationwide mobile network<\/em>“, which is something we haven’t ever considered before. We could certainly see VMO2 harnessing some of Cityfibre’s Dark Fibre, but the size of VMO2’s network and future build plans suggests that they’d probably rather build their own solutions. Time will tell.<\/p>\n

Finally, the report touches on the contentious issue of Openreach potentially launching a new ‘Equinox 2<\/strong>‘ discount offer on their FTTP products (here<\/a>), which would further reduce consumer prices. “The risk for AltNets and ever more Britons who benefit from infrastructure-based competition is that, near term, OR competes on even lower prices to halt growth in infrastructure-based competition from AltNets, and then raises prices after it re-establishes its network duopoly with VMO2<\/em>,” said the note.<\/p>\n

Numis Statement<\/strong><\/p>\n

We are not surprised to hear that OR wants to offer further line rental discounts for its less popular higher-speed products, and further discounts to all one-off connection charges. We think:<\/p>\n

\u25cf First, merely ongoing awareness that OR is working on Equinox 2 hurts AltNets who wholesale their FTTP networks (either exclusively, such as CF, or as well as retailing them, such as Community Fibre) since ISPs must ‘wait and see’ to get clear information to make economic decisions.<\/p>\n

\u25cf Second, connecting a home to any FTTP network for the first time is a major pain point for customers. They need to be at home and it requires drilling holes in walls. Therefore, we think many FTTP customers are unlikely to connect to an alternative network as well.<\/p>\n

Consequently, we think Equinox 2 cannot be allowed to offer even lower connection charges because this will be, effectively, anticompetitive.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

We’re still not entirely convinced by the analyst\u2019s arguments against allowing Openreach to price their own products more competitively, particularly in dense urban areas where aggressive competition is natural and to be expected. But it is also easy to understand why CF would be concerned and there remains a question mark over where Ofcom<\/a> might draw the line with a dominant player, or if they even draw one at all with future discounts.<\/p>\n

The analyst makes the point that Ofcom<\/a> waived through Equinox “in part because it estimated only [a] little FTTP network overlap between OR and AltNets in the short-term (even though the regulator did not ask any AltNets about their rollout plans)<\/em>.” But it points out that CF is already at 25% overbuild with OR – just 12 months after Ofcom<\/a> approved Equinox 1.<\/p>\n

At the very least, we are expecting that Ofcom’s review of Equinox 2, once it’s actually revealed to the public, will need to do a deeper dive and take more account of the impact upon AltNets. But whether that produces a different outcome is currently very open to debate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A new research report from investment bank Numis, which was pieced together by analyst John Karidis, has revealed some useful information about Cityfibre’s \u00a35bn project to deploy a new gigabit-capable Fibre-to-the-Premises (FTTP) broadband ISP network across the UK and their perspective on overbuild and prices vs Openreach (BT) etc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":30798,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[472,418,56,32,69,1997,74,475,96],"class_list":["post-32824","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uk_isp_news","tag-business","tag-cityfibre","tag-fttp","tag-o2","tag-bt-openreach","tag-uk-gigabit-programme","tag-talktalk","tag-virgin-media","tag-vodafone"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"yoast_head":"\nNumis Report on Cityfibre Reveals New Details of UK FTTP Broadband Build - 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