{"id":33048,"date":"2022-12-01T00:01:28","date_gmt":"2022-12-01T00:01:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/?p=33048"},"modified":"2022-12-01T14:03:14","modified_gmt":"2022-12-01T14:03:14","slug":"altnets-fear-openreach-fttp-price-cuts-to-put-20bn-uk-investment-at-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/index.php\/2022\/12\/altnets-fear-openreach-fttp-price-cuts-to-put-20bn-uk-investment-at-risk.html","title":{"rendered":"AltNets Fear Openreach FTTP Price Cuts Put \u00a320bn UK Investment at Risk UPDATE"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Independent Networks Co-operative Association<\/a> (INCA), which represents UK alternative broadband ISP networks, has warned that Ofcom<\/a> could be putting their collective investment of \u00a320bn to build competitive full fibre networks at risk if they wave through Openreach<\/a>’s (BT<\/a>) next round of FTTP<\/a> broadband prices cuts (Equinox 2).<\/p>\n

As we’ve reported before (here<\/a>), Openreach<\/a> are widely expected to introduce another significant round of long-term price cuts to their wholesale Fibre-to-the-Premises<\/strong> (FTTP<\/a>) products for ISPs in the near future. The move will enable their ISPs to stay competitive with newer AltNets (Summary of UK Full Fibre Builds<\/strong><\/a>) and further reduce the price of related packages, which will in turn boost take-up by consumers and aid the move away from copper lines. Consumers will be rightly pleased to see this.<\/p>\n

NOTE:<\/strong> BT<\/a> are investing up to \u00a315bn to cover 25 million premises with FTTP by December 2026 (80%+ of the UK). So far, they’ve already completed 9 million.<\/div>\n

The approach is likely to follow a similar model to last year’s “Equinox<\/em>” discount (here<\/a>), which helped to bring the incumbents prices down to a level that was much closer to what AltNets typically sell to consumers at today. Previously, Openreach’s products had tended to be a fair bit more expensive than AltNets, but the aggressively competitive market meant that was never going to last.<\/p>\n

However, INCA fears that Ofcom<\/a> will “wave through<\/em>” a future Equinox 2 proposal in much the same way as they did Equinox 1, which they told ISPreview.co.uk could “severely dent investors\u2019 confidence that the promises made by both Ofcom and the Government to foster a competitive market are being fulfilled<\/em>.” Indeed, they argue that even Openreach’s act of “signalling of new offers<\/em>” to ISPs is “already destabilising the market<\/em>“.<\/p>\n

Malcolm Corbett, CEO of INCA, told ISPreview.co.uk:<\/strong><\/p>\n

“The clear intention of Openreach\u2019s pricing strategy is to restrict altnets\u2019 willingness and appetite to keep building by denying them access to wholesale ISP customers. Given that BT\/ Openreach is pulling back on its deployment plans, as recently reported by the FT and Telegraph, hobbling the altnet competition to stop them stealing a march makes sense \u2013 for them. But obviously this has important consequences for consumers and the Government\u2019s gigabit strategy – overall the people who will suffer are those living in rural areas who will take longer to serve.<\/p>\n

In terms of what they can do about it, the altnets will decide whether to formally challenge Ofcom after they have made a decision on whether to allow BT to go ahead or to block the proposals. This decision can only be made once BT formally notifies Ofcom of its intention to change the prices, which then gives Ofcom has 90 days to make a decision. Officials have indicated to us that they will use that time to formally consult. However, the grounds for a challenge are quite limited – challenges can only be made on issues of process by which a decision was reached, not the final decision itself.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

We should point out that Openreach aren’t strictly “pulling back<\/em>” on their FTTP deployment (here<\/a>). Instead, the operator has said that they’re making some short-term \/ cost focused adjustments to their build strategy. But they also claim this won’t change the overall pace of build (it continues to increase), and they still expect to cover 25 million premises by December 2026 as planned. Time will tell.<\/p>\n

Otherwise, issues of commercial sensitivity tend to make it difficult to confirm what kind of impact all this is actually having on investment today. We still see plenty of funding flowing inward, but some big investors are known to be raising concerns with the regulator and government. However, some of this is perhaps to be expected, since those investing in AltNets will also want to protect that investment by any means they can.<\/p>\n

Charles Cameron, Partner at Cameron Barney, told ISPreview.co.uk:<\/strong><\/p>\n

“Investors are concerned that goalposts are moving. Investment groups, particularly those with an international perspective, invested billions of pounds on the basis that the UK would provide the regulatory certainty that will help them make a return on their capital. I hope Ofcom and the UK government are mindful of this when considering BT schemes like Equinox and any successor proposals.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Indeed, it’s easy to see why AltNets are concerned, given that in many cases Openreach’s expanded build programme will overbuild a lot of their deployments and the downward pressure on prices will make it harder for backers to gain a return on their investment (growing take-up becomes harder). But take-up via AltNets could also suffer if there’s a lower desire for ISPs to sell over rival wholesale networks in the first place, due to the attraction of Openreach’s offer and wider coverage.<\/p>\n

Many of these AltNets are still in the earliest stages of their investment and so carry a lot of risk. Suffice to say, they fear that Openreach\u2019s discounts might eventually result in a reduction in competitive fibre infrastructure investment and thus deployment. If that were to happen then, a lot further down the road perhaps, it might potentially make such packages more expensive and reduce choice in the market.<\/p>\n

Emphasis on the ‘might’ above, since we expect that there will still be competition in the future, even if it’s a lot less than today. Consolidation is already looming and will occur irrespective of Equinox – due partly to excessive overbuilding. Lest we forget that Openreach is not the only threat to AltNets, with VMO2 planning a new FTTP network of its own and the potential to wholesale out access to their existing infrastructure.<\/p>\n

INCA’s Response<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

“Through its Equinox schemes, Openreach is attempting to actively re-establish the monopoly it enjoyed in the copper market, over the UK\u2019s full fibre future<\/em>,” claims Malcolm. INCA are now making several demands of Ofcom and the Government, which they hope will be enough to address their concerns – we’ve listed these below.<\/p>\n

INCA’s Demands of Ofcom and Government<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u2022 Ofcom has a responsibility to act and must do so immediately.<\/p>\n

\u2022 To prevent further signalling by Openreach, Ofcom should demand Openreach submit Equinox 2 for immediate assessment by Ofcom.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Ofcom should immediately undertake public consultation with a focus on Equinox 2\u2019s impact on the competitive market.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Longer term, Ofcom should ensure that Openreach cannot engage in continuous signalling of new offers, designed to destabilise the market and prevent AltNet growth.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Ofcom also must prohibit Openreach from proposing or implementing any schemes that link discounts to loyalty rebates. Such loyalty schemes abuse Openreach\u2019s in-built advantage of an existing customer-base of almost totally dependent ISPs on the copper network, tying them in to the detriment of competition in full fibre provision.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Government should make clear to Ofcom that this uncertainty cannot continue.<\/p>\n

\u2022 In the absence of action by Ofcom, Government should publish an updated Statement of Strategic Priorities (SSP) directing Ofcom to ensure that the Government\u2019s full fibre ambitions are realised.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

However, it seems unrealistic to expect that Ofcom could stop Openreach, or any company for that matter, from merely “signalling<\/em>” that they might introduce a new round of discounts in the near future – particularly if that is indeed going to be the outcome. If anything, this industry needs more transparency, not less.<\/p>\n

Even if they could prevent such “signalling<\/em>“, there’s a myriad of unofficial channels where such information could still leak out, either via sources within Openreach or the ISPs they negotiate with. Lest we forget that ISPs are often the ones pressuring Openreach to reduce their prices (i.e. so they can remain competitive with AltNets) and not the other way around.<\/p>\n

Outside of that, Ofcom have made clear that they’ll wait and see what Openreach publish for their Equinox 2 offer, which is expected very soon. After that, the regulator will have 90 days to consult on the changes and to examine whether any competition issues may arise.<\/p>\n

Mark Shurmer, MD for Regulatory Affairs at Openreach, said:<\/strong><\/p>\n

“We take our legal and regulatory obligations extremely seriously and there’s a clear process for us to notify new pricing to Ofcom 90 days before it launches. This approach is transparent and it gives others an opportunity to raise issues directly with Ofcom. That’s what happened with our Equinox 1 offer, where concerns were found to be groundless by the regulator and the Competition Appeals Tribunal.<\/p>\n

We\u2019re constantly in discussions with Communications Providers \u2013 often at their request \u2013 about our pricing and ways to accelerate the adoption of full fibre broadband, and we\u2019ll continue to work closely with them to support their customers. Our prices will also continue to enable fair competition alongside our unprecedented investment, which we believe is a great outcome for consumers and businesses across the UK.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

An Ofcom spokesperson said:<\/strong><\/p>\n

“All companies should be allowed to innovate and offer competitive prices, including Openreach. However, due to its market power, under our wholesale fixed telecoms market review rules Openreach must notify us of certain offers 90 days before they come into effect. This allows us, and the wider industry, to assess the offer and we have the power to block it if we decide it is anti-competitive.<\/p>\n

Openreach has so far notified us of one long-term pricing arrangement for its FTTP services \u2013 last year \u2013 known as the \u2018Equinox\u2019 offer. We carefully considered this offer and the views of the wider industry, and concluded that it was not anti-competitive. Our decision was upheld by the Competition Appeal Tribunal earlier this year.<\/p>\n

We have not received a notification from Openreach in relation to \u2018Equinox 2\u2019. Should we receive a notification of a new offer, we would consider whether it raises competition concerns requiring intervention. We would expect to consult with the industry on our provisional view before reaching a final decision.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Many of the concerns being raised by AltNets today are similar to those that were levelled against Equinox 1 before, which didn’t hold much water. Cityfibre<\/a> even went so far as to challenge Ofcom’s related consultation process, but the Competition Appeal Tribunal<\/a> (CAT) dismissed that (here<\/a>). However, the tribunal did appear to hint that, were another consultation to occur (e.g. Equinox 2), then the regulator may need to take a wider view of the impacts (here<\/a>). But whether that produces a meaningfully different outcome remains open to debate.<\/p>\n

At the end of the day, nobody ever said that competition had to be friendly. Sometimes it can be brutal, particularly in urban areas where competition is often at its most natural and aggressive. Some AltNets have thus historically taken a big risk in assuming that Ofcom wouldn’t allow Openreach to adapt their pricing strategies to match.<\/p>\n

As the market becomes more competitive, then Ofcom\u2019s regulation actually tends to soften, not harden, and indeed their analytical framework remains more “concerned with the promotion of competition rather than the protection of competition as under competition law<\/em>” (Ofcom quote). Suffice to say, we wouldn’t bet against Equinox 2 being blocked and prices falling further.<\/p>\n

On the flip side, both Ofcom and the Government do sometimes seem as if they might be struggling to fully adapt to the dynamics of today’s more complex market, which has resulted in some AltNets feeling as if the regulator is unable to support that which they have so diligently helped to foster into existence.<\/p>\n

As a side note, we believe the \u00a320bn figure given by INCA is probably roughly reflective of their June 2022 report (here<\/a>), which estimated that AltNets have an intended capital expenditure (CAPEX<\/strong>) – <\/span>from now until 2025 – of over \u00a317.7 billion<\/strong>, <\/span>with operational expenditure of at least <\/span>\u00a31.5 billion.<\/span><\/p>\n

UPDATE 1:54pm<\/strong><\/p>\n

We’ve been informed that, in relation to all this, Ofcom this week published an open letter to the industry<\/a> (PDF) that sets out a summary of their recent work “in respect of concerns that have been raised with us regarding Openreach\u2019s fibre build<\/em>.”<\/p>\n

As part of that, the regulator said they “have seen no evidence to suggest Openreach has rolled out its fibre network to target or harm competitors, or that these build decisions were not commercially rational. The evidence we have seen shows that various factors have to date fed into Openreach\u2019s build decisions<\/em>.”<\/p>\n

Broadly speaking, the regulator seems reasonably happy with the current state of today’s market. But there is some talk about improving the information Openreach releases on its future build plans, although no useful specifics are provided to help explain what will be changing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Independent Networks Co-operative Association (INCA), which represents UK alternative broadband ISP networks, has warned that Ofcom could be putting their collective investment of \u00a320bn to build competitive full fibre networks at risk if they wave through Openreach’s (BT) next round of FTTP broadband prices cuts (Equinox 2).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20660,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[418,56,36,69,38],"class_list":["post-33048","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uk_isp_news","tag-cityfibre","tag-fttp","tag-ofcom-regulation","tag-bt-openreach","tag-politics"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"yoast_head":"\nAltNets Fear Openreach FTTP Price Cuts Put \u00a320bn UK Investment at Risk UPDATE - ISPreview UK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Independent Networks Co-operative Association (INCA), which represents UK alternative broadband ISP networks, has warned that Ofcom could be putting\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/index.php\/2022\/12\/altnets-fear-openreach-fttp-price-cuts-to-put-20bn-uk-investment-at-risk.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"AltNets Fear Openreach FTTP Price Cuts Put \u00a320bn UK Investment at Risk UPDATE - 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