{"id":34223,"date":"2023-04-18T14:51:50","date_gmt":"2023-04-18T13:51:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/?p=34223"},"modified":"2023-04-18T15:18:28","modified_gmt":"2023-04-18T14:18:28","slug":"thinkcx-reveal-subscriber-take-up-rates-for-uk-fttp-altnet-providers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/index.php\/2023\/04\/thinkcx-reveal-subscriber-take-up-rates-for-uk-fttp-altnet-providers.html","title":{"rendered":"ThinkCX Reveal Subscriber Take-Up Rates for UK FTTP AltNet Providers"},"content":{"rendered":"

Telecoms analysts at global market intelligence firm ThinkCX<\/a> have published a new Altnet Investment Scorecard, which attempts to identify the “winners and losers<\/em>” in the UK’s rollout of full fibre broadband ISP networks by identifying the accomplishments of alternative networks in signing up actual new customers.<\/p>\n

As we’ve said before (see here<\/a>, here<\/a> and here<\/a>), the presence of so many AltNets in the market – all of which are building new gigabit-capable infrastructure (often overbuilding rival networks) – will, when combined with the current inflationary and other cost pressures – place a squeeze on the investment tap. Due to this, some projects may have to slow their build and focus more on generating take-up, while others may face consolidation.<\/p>\n

NOTE:<\/strong> See our Summary of UK Full Fibre Builds<\/strong><\/a> for an up-to-date list of projects.<\/div>\n

One of the most useful measures when examining an operator’s likely Return on Investment<\/strong> (ROI) is to examine subscriber growth relative to the competition. But the problem is that very few AltNets actually release any take-up data, which is partly because people have a tendency to take it out of context (e.g. rapid builds will often suppress the take-up figure relative to network coverage).<\/p>\n

In other cases, AltNets may simply not be performing as well as they would have hoped and so won’t feel inclined to broadcast that. But as we’ve always said, you can only really start to judge take-up properly by looking at areas where a network has been live for a couple of years, although we rarely see that level of detail.<\/p>\n

The amount of take-up an operator needs to be viable can also vary between locations, so a single figure doesn’t always give you the whole story. For example, smaller rural communities often need much higher take-up than more competitive urban areas.<\/p>\n

Despite this, ThinkCX’s new scorecard attempts to identify altnets’ accomplishments in signing up actual new customers, rather than solely claims of their premises passed. The full report is private (paid), but they have been kind enough to include sample data from six different UK networks deployed over the last 2 years (selected because they have a regional focus and are better suited for illustrating than using nationwide figures).<\/p>\n

Apparently, this has been calculated using retail subscriber data for each altnet (Fibrus<\/a>, Truespeed<\/a>, Jurassic Fibre, CommunityFibre<\/a>, KCOM<\/a> and Ogi<\/a>), although it does NOT account for wholesale network access supplied via other retail ISPs (if any). The accuracy is also somewhat dependent upon the credibility of the premises passed figures being released by the providers themselves.<\/p>\n

\"ThinkCX-Takeup-Rate-of-Six-UK-FTTP-Altnets\"<\/p>\n

Just to be clear, this is looking at a specific period of regional build and take-up, rather than an overall coverage total. But the data for Truespeed<\/a> does seem to be much closer to their overall figures, since the provider has previously (Feb 2023) reported having covered 60,000 premises (up from 50k in Sept 2022) and being home to 13,000 customers (up from 11,500) – equating to 21.67% take-up.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, Thinkbroadband<\/a> informed us that Fibrus<\/a> added over 60,000 premises in N.Ireland between March 2022 and October 2022 (this would drop that take-up figure a fair bit), so we still have questions about the accuracy of this data.<\/p>\n

Ron Smouter, VP Sales and Marketing at ThinkCX, said:<\/strong><\/p>\n

“Reliance on \u2018premises covered\u2019 as an ROI measurement device is fatally flawed because it only tells half the story and is based on potential subscribers instead of actual subscribers. The market has seen the supply of private equity significantly curtailed in recent months as investing firms begin to look more carefully for evidence of success to support their M&A and investment plans.<\/p>\n

The day of reckoning has arrived with our Altnet Investment Scorecard giving the most accurate picture yet of subscriber take rates \u2013 real subscriber acquisition relative to the size of potential subscriber coverage for each FTTH<\/a> network area.<\/p>\n

The data used here shows that, while the reach of each project is broadly similar (approx. 25,000 to 50,000 new potential subscribers), the take rates tell a wildly different story. The highest is 5 times that of the lowest, and only 1 of the altnet projects yielded a new customer take up rate in excess of the roughly 25% \u2018break even\u2019 figure for FTTH<\/a> projects generally assumed by investors.<\/p>\n

In any event, measuring the revenues generated by new customers divided by the total investment is a far more direct and meaningful ROI calculation than dividing the number of new premises covered by the total investment. But until now, determining the actual number of new subscribers resulting from a network building project has been a futile undertaking, as the UK altnets generally have no obligation to report their subscriber acquisitions. And frankly, until now, there hasn\u2019t been an objective analytics firm like ThinkCX capable of precisely measuring customer take up rates in the UK\u2019s regional broadband markets.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

At this point, some of you might be wondering how ThinkCX is actually able to figure out such subscriber data when it isn’t usually published by the providers. The answer is that they measure data from internet connected consumer devices that are using residential ISPs (e.g. it’s possible to tell what ISP each device is using and to calculate a figure based off that). A number of specialised search engines exist for pooling such data.<\/p>\n

Using labels like “Project Start<\/em>” and “Project End<\/em>” is, however, a little bit confusing, as all the listed operators have ongoing builds and some of those began long before the listed start date (e.g. Fibrus<\/a> began their N.Ireland build in 2019). But these labels just reflect ThinkCX’s data gathering period, although there does appear to be a lot of variation.<\/p>\n

ThinkCX said they regularly benchmark their data against Ofcom<\/a> figures and quarterly releases by the larger ISPs and claim to have very high accuracy (~99%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Telecoms analysts at global market intelligence firm ThinkCX have published a new Altnet Investment Scorecard, which attempts to identify the “winners and losers” in the UK’s rollout of full fibre broadband ISP networks by identifying the accomplishments of alternative networks in signing up actual new customers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":21120,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[472,1491,1995,56,76,34],"class_list":["post-34223","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uk_isp_news","tag-business","tag-community-fibre","tag-fibrus","tag-fttp","tag-kc","tag-statistics"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"yoast_head":"\nThinkCX Reveal Subscriber Take-Up Rates for UK FTTP AltNet Providers - ISPreview UK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Telecoms analysts at global market intelligence firm ThinkCX have published a new Altnet Investment Scorecard, which attempts to identify the "winners and\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/index.php\/2023\/04\/thinkcx-reveal-subscriber-take-up-rates-for-uk-fttp-altnet-providers.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ThinkCX Reveal Subscriber Take-Up Rates for UK FTTP AltNet Providers - 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