{"id":34912,"date":"2023-07-03T11:03:07","date_gmt":"2023-07-03T10:03:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/?p=34912"},"modified":"2023-07-03T11:04:03","modified_gmt":"2023-07-03T10:04:03","slug":"numis-report-warns-bt-underplaying-the-risk-from-uk-altnets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/index.php\/2023\/07\/numis-report-warns-bt-underplaying-the-risk-from-uk-altnets.html","title":{"rendered":"Numis Report Warns BT Underplaying the Risk from UK AltNets"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A new report from investment bank <a href=\"https:\/\/www.numis.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Numis<\/a>, which was authored by analyst John Karidis, has today reiterated its sell recommendation on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/index.php\/go\/britishtelecom\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">BT<\/a> (inc. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/index.php\/link\/openreach\" target=\"_blank\">Openreach<\/a>) and warned that the national broadband giant &#8220;<em>keeps underplaying the risk<\/em>&#8221; from rival alternative networks to its consumer and business units.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>The latest research is being published just a few days after <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/index.php\/link\/cityfibre\" target=\"_blank\">CityFibre<\/a> scooped three major build contracts under the UK Government&#8217;s \u00a35bn <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/index.php\/2021\/03\/gov-starts-gbp5bn-uk-gigabit-broadband-and-voucher-schemes.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Project Gigabit<\/a> broadband rollout scheme &#8211; for Hampshire, Norfolk and Suffolk in England (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/index.php\/2023\/07\/cityfibre-win-three-major-uk-project-gigabit-broadband-rollout-contracts.html\">here<\/a>). The deals are worth a combined \u00a3488m (public and private) and will help the operator to cover an additional 218,000 hard to reach premises, plus 283,000 premises within its existing commercial build.<\/p>\n<div class=\"bq2\"><strong>NOTE:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/index.php\/go\/britishtelecom\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">BT<\/a> Group is investing up to \u00a315bn to help <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/index.php\/link\/openreach\" target=\"_blank\">Openreach<\/a> extend Fibre-to-the-Premises (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/index.php\/link\/fttp\">FTTP<\/a>) broadband to 25 million UK premises by December 2026 (currently 10.3m).<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/index.php\/link\/openreach\" target=\"_blank\">Openreach<\/a> has yet to secure any of the Project Gigabit contracts, which typically focus on helping to upgrade the hardest final 20% of premises, where commercial models quickly become unviable due to the disproportionately high cost to build and increasingly sparse communities. But that may change in the future, particularly with the plans for some of the trickiest areas to be covered by a single Cross Regional supplier (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/index.php\/2023\/03\/powys-council-raise-concern-over-project-gigabit-broadband-plans.html\">example<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;<em>Alternative <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/index.php\/link\/fttp\">FTTP<\/a> networks are here to stay, and they are cheaper to resell than [Openreach&#8217;s] <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/index.php\/link\/fttp\">FTTP<\/a><\/em>&#8220;, said the new report, before reminding readers that the operator also lost 210,000 broadband lines in FY23, and expects to lose c.400,000 in FY24. &#8220;<em>In addition, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/index.php\/go\/britishtelecom\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">BT<\/a> will no longer report such key metrics quarterly, which adds to the already significant risk to its investment programme<\/em>.&#8221;<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"bq1\"><p><strong>Extract from the Numis Report<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&#8220;In addition to increasingly bad news for &#8216;OR-only&#8217; resellers BT &amp; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/index.php\/go\/bskyb\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Sky Broadband<\/a> in rural areas, we think OR FTTP remains absent from ~50% of the ever-growing AltNet footprint (this now reaches ~25% of the UK). OR is unlikely to correct this fast: (i) big AltNets are now expert at growing their networks further, and (ii) OR has prioritised connections over network build (hence why its build run-rate was c.3m new premises pa in 2H FY23, vs c.4m it targeted in May-22). This is more reason why BT should report key metrics quarterly.<\/p>\n<p>For now, Sky must be poaching BT&#8217;s Consumer customers to remain an &#8216;OR-only&#8217; reseller. In Apr-23, it raised prices 8.1%, whereas Consumer prices climbed 14.4%. Consumer cannot raise prices by less, because it is funding OR&#8217;s FTTP build and OR has effected deeper, &#8216;Equinox 2&#8217; discounts to accelerate FTTP connections (and to keep Sky loyal, and stress AltNets).&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>However, it&#8217;s worth remembering that deployments into the final 20% of premises (typically more rural areas and some sub-urban locations) traditionally carry more risk for everybody and small AltNets, with weaker balance sheets, may be more exposed to that. Making a profit in such tricky locations tends to follow a long payback window, which can run to 10 &#8211; 15 years, depending upon take-up and build costs.<\/p>\n<p>At present the market is chocked full of over a hundred alternative networks (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/index.php\/2020\/04\/summary-of-full-fibre-build-progress-across-uk-broadband-isps.html\">summary<\/a>) and quite a few of them are overbuilding each other in areas that may struggle to deliver a viable return for everybody. On top of that, everybody is currently under pressure from a combination of other issues, such as rising costs (build, leases etc.) and the related need to secure a viable level of take-up by consumers.<\/p>\n<p>Suffice to say, it&#8217;s perhaps no surprise that, in recent months, we&#8217;ve seen a spate of operators slowing their builds to focus on take-up and or announcing job cuts, most of which have come from AltNets. Openreach are not immune to some of these challenges and have also had to adjust their build plans to be more cost-efficient.<\/p>\n<p>So, on the one hand, Numis might be right in suggesting that BT is underplaying the risk from AltNets. But on the other hand, there are challenges for everybody involved in deploying gigabit broadband, and we don&#8217;t yet know precisely what the market will end up looking like in 5-10 years\u2019 time (i.e. how many AltNets of scale will survive in their current form). But it\u2019s still difficult to see Openreach maintaining the same level of dominance they\u2019ve enjoyed before.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A new report from investment bank Numis, which was authored by analyst John Karidis, has today reiterated its sell recommendation on BT (inc. Openreach) and warned that the national broadband giant &#8220;keeps underplaying the risk&#8221; from rival alternative networks to its consumer and business units.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22148,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[474,472,418,56,69],"class_list":["post-34912","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uk_isp_news","tag-bt","tag-business","tag-cityfibre","tag-fttp","tag-bt-openreach"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Numis Report Warns BT Underplaying the Risk from UK AltNets - ISPreview UK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A new report from investment bank Numis, which was authored by analyst John Karidis, has today reiterated its sell recommendation on BT (inc. 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