{"id":36497,"date":"2023-12-05T14:55:21","date_gmt":"2023-12-05T14:55:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/?p=36497"},"modified":"2023-12-05T15:20:26","modified_gmt":"2023-12-05T15:20:26","slug":"study-suggest-vodafone-and-three-uk-merger-wont-harm-consumers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/index.php\/2023\/12\/study-suggest-vodafone-and-three-uk-merger-wont-harm-consumers.html","title":{"rendered":"Study Suggest Vodafone and Three UK Merger Won’t Harm Consumers"},"content":{"rendered":"

A new meta-study from consultancy firm Compass Lexecon has examined markets where mergers reduced the number of primary mobile network operators from 4 to 3 and found little evidence to suggest that they harm consumers, which could bode well for Vodafone<\/a> and Three UK<\/a>’s proposed, if still somewhat controversial, tie-up.<\/p>\n

The proposed merger, which would see Vodafone<\/a> hold a 51% slice of the business and CK Hutchison (Three UK<\/a>) retain 49%, has been promoted as something that would be \u201cgreat for customers, great for the country and great for competition<\/em>,\u201d while also resulting in a major \u00a311bn<\/strong> investment to upgrade the UK\u2019s 5G<\/a> mobile (broadband) infrastructure and network coverage.<\/p>\n

NOTE:<\/strong> The combined business aspires to reach more than 99% of the UK population with their 5G<\/a> Standalone (SA) network by 2034 and push fixed wireless access (mobile home broadband) to 82% of households by 2030, among other things.<\/div>\n

However, regulators and some politicians are known to be cautious, particularly given the concerns over any potentially negative impacts upon competition (e.g. both at retail and wholesale) and consumer prices that may result from having fewer operators. Not to mention some fears over national security (i.e. Three UK<\/a> is owned by CK Hutchison, which is perceived as being closely tied to China) and the risk of job losses (here<\/a> and here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

On the flip side, both operators have argued that the deal would improve network quality, service coverage and that merger related price changes are \u201cnot part of the transaction rationale, and we are not planning any increases in prices<\/em>\u201d (here<\/a>). Having said that, the operators also once said they had “no plans<\/em>” to reintroduce EU roaming charges, until they did.<\/p>\n

The new study<\/strong><\/a> from Compass Lexecon,<\/strong> which has been promoted by the aforementioned merger parties, examines 25 empirical studies of similar mergers in other countries (Austria, Ireland, Germany and the USA) to see if they resulted in consumer harm (particularly around pricing). The research looked at the relationship between mobile market concentration and prices, investment and quality in order to discover whether earlier mergers impacted the rate of decline in average revenue per GigaByte (GB) of data (mobile broadband) consumed.<\/p>\n

“We find that when the empirical literature is considered in the round, previous four-to-three mergers typically had little effect (if any) on prices and led, in many cases, to significant improvements in the quality of the merging parties and better national average network quality relative to other countries. We also find that the average revenue per gigabyte consumed (as a measure for quality-adjusted prices) generally fell either at a faster rate post-merger or at a similar rate as pre-merger<\/em>,” said the report.<\/p>\n

Summary Points<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u27a4 These mobile mergers have had little impact on prices, typically having no effect at all, or increasing prices for some customers for a short period only.<\/p>\n

\u27a4 The impact of these mergers on industry investment and mobile service quality has generally been positive for consumers, for instance by extending network coverage and\/or increasing download speeds.<\/p>\n

\u27a4 With limited effect on prices and better quality, the 4-to-3 mergers since 2010 appear to have provided customers with better value for money. Across the industry, quality-adjusted prices (measured by average revenue per gigabyte of data) have been falling for many years. Of the countries assessed in the meta-study, this downward trend accelerated post-merger in two countries (Austria and Ireland), continued to fall at the same rate in three countries (Germany, Italy, and the US), and did not fall as fast post-merger in the sixth (the Netherlands).<\/p>\n

\u27a4 Studies examining the effect of concentration on price and quality have come to differing conclusions on whether there is any systematic relationship and, if so, the nature of that relationship. The differences in results reflect a range of reasons including differences in the groups of countries being considered, different time periods, different price and quality measures and different methods to control for other factors.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

At this point it’s worth noting that the study is by no means comprehensive and doesn’t really extend into other areas, such as the impact on consumer pricing at MVNO providers, job losses or issues of security (the latter is a more complicated consideration) etc. National security concerns would be a matter for the UK government, which could intervene under existing laws, but has thus far not shown any real interest in such a course of action.<\/p>\n

Similarly, it’s worth noting that the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), which is currently assessing the deal, cannot consider all effects that the merger might have. The CMA’s focus is on competition, not employment, access to personal data or security.<\/p>\n

One other consideration here is the degree to which any concessions demanded by each market’s competition regulator may have impacted on the outcome, but on a quick scan the new report doesn’t appear to have delved too deeply into that. Both Vodafone<\/a> and Three UK aim to complete their merger by the end of 2024, regulatory approval allowing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A new meta-study from consultancy firm Compass Lexecon has examined markets where mergers reduced the number of primary mobile network operators from 4 to 3 and found little evidence to suggest that they harm consumers, which could bode well for Vodafone and Three UK’s proposed, if still somewhat controversial, tie-up.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":34985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[472,38,479,63,96],"class_list":["post-36497","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uk_isp_news","tag-business","tag-politics","tag-security","tag-three-uk","tag-vodafone"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/mastodon.social\/@ispreview\/111528393175720440","error":""},"yoast_head":"\nStudy Suggest Vodafone and Three UK Merger Won't Harm Consumers - ISPreview UK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A new meta-study from consultancy firm Compass Lexecon has examined markets where mergers reduced the number of primary mobile network operators from 4 to\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ispreview.co.uk\/index.php\/2023\/12\/study-suggest-vodafone-and-three-uk-merger-wont-harm-consumers.html\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Study Suggest Vodafone and Three UK Merger Won't Harm Consumers - 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