"You don't need that speed"
"It's a waste of money"
"My XX/XX works fine for me"
"Most people don't need that speed"
"Only gamers need that speed"
etc
etc
etc
Okay.
And the kind of people who are on 55, 80 or 160 now saying those kinds of things are going to be convinced they need multi-gig imminently how exactly?
Openreach saw traffic increase by, say, 10% last year. It was slightly less but we'll say a bit more per customer to account for the loss of some users. I'm going to round the increases up to next integer as I'm doing them in my head and had a work call at 7.
80 Mbps // 160 Mbps // 7 Mbps average peak seen by pure FTTP providers right now.
10% CAGR:
2023 - 80 Mbps // 160 Mbps // 7 Mbps
2024 - 88 Mbps // 192 Mbps // 7.7 Mbps
2025 - 97 Mbps // 212 Mbps // 8.5 Mbps
2026 - 107 Mbps // 234 Mbps // 9.4 Mbps
2027 - 118 Mbps // 258 Mbps // 10.4 Mbps
2028 - 132 Mbps // 284 Mbps // 11.5 Mbps
2029 - 154 Mbps // 313 Mbps // 12.7 Mbps
2030 - 170 Mbps // 345 Mbps // 14 Mbps
TalkTalk's forecast 20% CAGR:
2023 - 80 Mbps // 160 Mbps // 7 Mbps
2024 - 96 Mbps // 192 Mbps // 8.4 Mbps
2025 - 120 Mbps // 232 Mbps // 10.1 Mbps
2026 - 144 Mbps // 280 Mbps // 12.2 Mbps
2027 - 180 Mbps // 336 Mbps // 14.7 Mbps
2028 - 216 Mbps // 404 Mbps // 17.7 Mbps
2029 - 264 Mbps // 492 Mbps // 21.3 Mbps
2030 - 324 Mbps // 592 Mbps // 25.6 Mbps
The actual usage per customer at peak times is going to rise faster than this due to the move to all-IP TV, however that has almost zero influence on the need for multi-gig. Far more likely operators will be implementing multicast or some other mechanism to reduce core load and QoS to ensure other traffic on the broadband can't cause live TV to break.
No unforeseen applications, no need for multigig. The lack of that killer app has been disappointing but that's where we are.