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MS3 CEO Guy Miller Interview: Openreach lost 500k customers in 2024!

GreenLantern22

ULTIMATE Member
Great interview to MS3's CEO Guy Miller by Richard Tang:


Guy talks about the 500k customers Openreach lost in 2024. I wonder how many more they would be losing if they weren't enabling 4m FTTP homes a year! @Mark.J any way to estimate that? What's Openreach's FTTP penetration after 1 year?

I think there is a strong argument that Openreach is not doing this huge investment just because they love fibre but because they really want to keep control of this market and not be killed by the Altnets. Nothing like competition to rattle a lazy duopoly!
 
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Great interview to MS3's CEO Guy Miller by Richard Tang:


Guy talks about the 500k customers Openreach lost in 2024. I wonder how many more they would be losing if they weren't enabling 1m FTTP homes a year! @Mark.J any way to estimate that? What's Openreach's FTTP penetration after 1 year?

I think there is a strong argument that Openreach is not doing this huge investment just because they love fibre but because they really want to keep control of this market and not be killed by the Altnets. Nothing like competition to rattle a lazy duopoly!
OR unable to have FTTP in a lot of MDU's currently hampers their take up significantly within that space.

Obviously, if they get easier wayleaves and such, that will change. But in the current state of things, they have like no expansion into that side of things.
 
OR unable to have FTTP in a lot of MDU's currently hampers their take up significantly within that space.

Obviously, if they get easier wayleaves and such, that will change. But in the current state of things, they have like no expansion into that side of things.
Interesting but not sure what your point is. Are you implying that their penetration is lower because they are not tackling MDUs?
 
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Interesting but not sure what your point is. Are you implying that their penetration is lower because they are not tackling MDUs?
Not exactly, I was more trying to say that "if" OR supposedly had easier wayleaves into MDU's right now, takeup would be higher, especially in MDU's that only have the OR network as an option.
 
I think there is a strong argument that Openreach is not doing this huge investment just because they love fibre but because they really want to keep control of this market and not be killed by the Altnets. Nothing like competition to rattle a lazy duopoly!
This isn't an argument: it's exactly what happened. They started to roll out G.fast then the altnet wave began and they pivoted.

They fully intended to install G.fast where possible and minimise FTTP deployment to, at most commercially, new build and some premises too far from the cabinet to see any benefit from G.fast.

My old place saw G.fast go live in 2019 and FTTP in 2020.
 
The "its the altnets wot did it" argument is rather marred by the reality that Openreach were doing FTTP (at smaller scale) before their appearance on the scene, and is happily rolling out FTTP in places that even the financially-challenged altnets won't touch, and often without government subsidy too.

G.fast was a rapid response to Virgin, which is why it never appeared all that much outside of cabled areas.
 
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See this for the Status of Altnets

It is common sense that Altnet gains reduce Openreach numbers.

Openreach will do well in areas where there are no Altnets yet
Altnets will do very well in areas without Openreach FTTP yet
The battle will be where they both exist and then there is VM

BT has probably already factored in the likely percentage for Openreach (Wholesale) and the % for BT/EE Consumer (ISP). They don't publish figures because its share effecting but its probably the reason they are keeping the cost per premise down and retaining flexibility.

The Altnets of course will need to pay off their debts.

The biggest unknown is the likes of Sky and the other ISPs who can just choose who to use and the end user demand for higher tier products which is required to bring in the revenue and profit.
 
OR unable to have FTTP in a lot of MDU's currently hampers their take up significantly within that space.

Obviously, if they get easier wayleaves and such, that will change. But in the current state of things, they have like no expansion into that side of things.
Well, there's nothing stopping OR deploying into MDUs. Hyperopic and a few others have a well established process for this. OR could have invested in the necessary resources to make wayleave and surveys happen. But fire regs and drilling through fire rated walls is also another big factor these days that would not have been such a concern previously.

It's just a business decision that there's too much friction and cost to make it attractive at the moment verses just getting on with deployments in the public highway where they don't have similar issues. In the meantime they and others are lobbying government to sort out some aspects of the paperwork. But detailed before and after surveys, fire risk assessments, are not going away.
 
The "its the altnets wot did it" argument is rather marred by the reality that Openreach were doing FTTP (at smaller scale) before their appearance on the scene, and is happily rolling out FTTP in places that even the financially-challenged altnets won't touch, and often without government subsidy too.

G.fast was a rapid response to Virgin, which is why it never appeared all that much outside of cabled areas.

This is complete and utter nonsense.

Openreach pivoted to FTTP when they were structurally separated due to Ofcom pressure and the needs and priorities of the new entity diverged from that of BT Group. It had absolutely nothing to do with alt-nets, who are minnows in comparison to Openreach's network.

Your point doesn't even make sense, Openreach are putting FTTP into rural communities that were previously only served due to BDUK, there are no alt-nets to pressure them. If what you are saying was true, they'd still be rolling out G.Fast in these places.
 
As for MDUs, Openreach are already doing this but clearly it's easier for say Hyperoptic to have a monopoly if the building was only built with them providing any service.
 
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This is complete and utter nonsense.

Openreach pivoted to FTTP when they were structurally separated due to Ofcom pressure and the needs and priorities of the new entity diverged from that of BT Group. It had absolutely nothing to do with alt-nets, who are minnows in comparison to Openreach's network.

Your point doesn't even make sense, Openreach are putting FTTP into rural communities that were previously only served due to BDUK, there are no alt-nets to pressure them. If what you are saying was true, they'd still be rolling out G.Fast in these places.
I actually think your comment is utter nonsense. Ofcom did push them to separate but at the end of the day Openreach is still part part of BT Group PLC. "The needs and priorities of the new entity diverged from that of BT Group" => indeed this has happened but this wasn't because Openreach wanted to spent billions of pounds to have a nice new shinny fibre network, it was because they now really felt the pressure of the Altnets and there was commercial sense in doing it! Openreach changed their strategy because they had no choice. If they would have persisted with the G.Fast rollout it would have made them the second player for sure.

And your comment about Altnets "are minnows in comparison to Openreach's network" coudn't be further from the truth. Have a look at thinkbroadband labs, which show validated fibre coverage, currently showing:

Alt Net FTTP:
FTTP excluding Openreach, KCOM and Virgin Media RFOG 37.56%

Openreach/KCom FTTP: 48.63%

Virgin Media Cable: 54.70%

Full Fibre (FTTP or FTTH): 71.28%

Clearly Altnets are not minnows but the second largest fibre network, getting closer to VM's network cable size. And in fact if you look at the overall Full Fibre FTTP (71.28%) the Altnets cover more than half of that (see this post for more details). Of course Openreach (>30 Mbps) is 93.96% so on that basis we could say that when Openreach finishes upgrading most of their lines to fibre they will be much bigger on a FTTP basis. But it's clear the Altnets are here to stay and will most likely consolidate and became not only the third national network but I believe they will overtake VM to become the second largest network eventually. Openreach G.fast is only 4.74% and diminishing and VDSL is not fit for purpose unless you are next to the cabinet so Openreach's only choice was to move to FTTP or let the Altnets eat their lunch.

Openreach are losing >500k customers when they adding 4m FTTP lines a year, how many more would they would have lost if they didn't migrate 1m FTTP lines a year? I think you either like BT or Openreach too much...
 
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Some of the Openreach losses are in DSL only areas. THREE reported that their 5G Home broadband almost doubled year on year. Potentially these could be won back to fixed but there is a percentage of customers that either cannot afford or regard the broadband entry prices as too high.

There may also be some sharing BB/Wifi with neighbours in MDUs.

Is there a source of detailed Altnet connections as most just give "coverage" figures?
 
Some of the Openreach losses are in DSL only areas. THREE reported that their 5G Home broadband almost doubled year on year. Potentially these could be won back to fixed but there is a percentage of customers that either cannot afford or regard the broadband entry prices as too high.
This is indeed true (see here) but there is a reason they don't break down the customer numbers by connection type. Doubling year on year sounds huge but it could easily be from 100k customers to 200k which is insignificant in the home broadband market. And if evidence of these forums is used as a data point it's mostly people looking for the cheapest broadband possible or that have other reasonable alternative due to lack of coverage from other fixed line networks. So I would expect most of these to come back to fixed line when and if a more suitable alternative appears.

Is there a source of detailed Altnet connections as most just give "coverage" figures?
The INCA report which ISPreview covered here is probably the best piece of data you can use for actual Altnet customers. But in general terms it will be 16.5m premises / 3m customers (18% penetration) by the end of 2024. Jan 2024 total UK premises is 31m and 400-500k are added annually so it's pretty safe to say Altnets will reach 50% of premises by year end although not all of these are RFS.
 
Well, there's nothing stopping OR deploying into MDUs. Hyperopic and a few others have a well established process for this. OR could have invested in the necessary resources to make wayleave and surveys happen. But fire regs and drilling through fire rated walls is also another big factor these days that would not have been such a concern previously.

It's just a business decision that there's too much friction and cost to make it attractive at the moment verses just getting on with deployments in the public highway where they don't have similar issues. In the meantime they and others are lobbying government to sort out some aspects of the paperwork. But detailed before and after surveys, fire risk assessments, are not going away.

My experience with MDUs is that the residential blocks that get FTTP installed are either done during the build phase because the developer is sensible, it happens as a result of lobbying by residents to get the services put in, or it's part of an estate-wide agreement e.g Community Fibre in London.

A lot of freehold management companies want to do as little as possible and showing a surveyor around to look in risers counts as doing something, so they prefer to not do that. Inviting a network builder in is even more rare.

I've witnessed commercial landlords see it as a revenue opportunity and ask for payment of several thousand pounds per connected unit from the network builder - you can't reward that sort of behaviour or everybody in the sector will do the same.
 
My experience with MDUs is that the residential blocks that get FTTP installed are either done during the build phase because the developer is sensible, it happens as a result of lobbying by residents to get the services put in, or it's part of an estate-wide agreement e.g Community Fibre in London.

A lot of freehold management companies want to do as little as possible and showing a surveyor around to look in risers counts as doing something, so they prefer to not do that. Inviting a network builder in is even more rare.

I've witnessed commercial landlords see it as a revenue opportunity and ask for payment of several thousand pounds per connected unit from the network builder - you can't reward that sort of behaviour or everybody in the sector will do the same.
I feel MDU's would be easier with a change of law, make it so if the LL doesnt respond after X weeks, then the legal occupier has the power to grant access to work. There is LL's out there who become awkrawd by simply not responding.
 
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The issue for many MDUs is that the Landlord owns the building/communal areas and hence any damage or remedial work as a consequence can be claimed. So providers will be reluctant to proceed without permission even if they given a right.

The only way forward is legislation (which probably already exists) that defines the basic services of a dwelling and that the "availability" of Full Fibre Broadband becomes one of them. i.e. you cannot grant a lease or rent a premises without meeting such criteria.
 
How sustainable are Altnets? Around here they're offering 900/900 FTTP for around £25 which doesn't seem to be profitable.
 
How sustainable are Altnets? Around here they're offering 900/900 FTTP for around £25 which doesn't seem to be profitable.
The issue has been addressed before. Sustainability is not a big issue. The Altnets have big debts but even if they go into administration another Altnet will pick up the network and carry on. The third network is here to stay. CEOs of several Altnets have confirmed their pricing is sustainable. I think they are not lying but I don't think sustainability is driving their pricing but competition. They know they need to gain customers and increase their penetration so they have to go low on price. Only time will tell as to whether they can sustain the low pricing. Openreach is limited by Ofcom on how much they can lower their prices. Otherwise they would have dropped their prices to kill investment in the Altnets and retain customers while they finish their FTTP upgrade.
 
The issue for many MDUs is that the Landlord owns the building/communal areas and hence any damage or remedial work as a consequence can be claimed. So providers will be reluctant to proceed without permission even if they given a right.

The only way forward is legislation (which probably already exists) that defines the basic services of a dwelling and that the "availability" of Full Fibre Broadband becomes one of them. i.e. you cannot grant a lease or rent a premises without meeting such criteria.
The situation should not be "if there is damage it can be claimed". All this should be considered at survey, clear photos taken of the the entire route. The survey done jointly by a network planner from the fibre outfit, and a clueful building manager from the landlord.

If using existing penetrations and containment is this shared and is there a need to keep new cables routed in a specific way to avoid crossing others.

If new penetrations and containment the location needs to be agreed.

Any termination points in the riser need to have s location agreed to to impede access to other services.

Will the cable leaving the riser to each customer need to form part of the initial build so fire stopping of all penetrations in and out of the riser are dealt with in one go.

There will be considerable focus these days in MDUs to leave the fire rating of the riser restored before anyone leaves site (and definitely not overnight)
 
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