I think that:
- Prices will go up eventually. Not so much because it's 3 networks instead of 4, but due to the nature of the companies we'll have. EE/VF/O2 is not the same as VF/Three/Eir, for example.
- Coverage will improve, but it will get worse for some VF/3 users since VF will stop using some masts (same as with the Orange/T-Mobile merger). Signal inside my flat would be heavily affected if they discontinued Three's site and only used the VF's site ~200 meters away.
- Some areas will be hammered by the aditional traffic (eg: areas where Three is bad and VF has limited capacity and vice-versa), plus some roaming issues. I wouldn't do any long term contracts with either network until this is all done.
- Vodafone's current position is the result of bad management and a merger just by itself can't fix it. Without changes, I think we'll see Vodafone stagnating again in a few years, especially now that they'll have many users and no one pushing them hard (maybe EE will, but I don't know).
- EE's smaller customer base may force them to drop their prices slightly/offer more data, but the best deals are likely to be reserved for those also using their broadband.
- O2 will improve, but it's hard for an old dog to learn new tricks. With a few exceptions, they move slow, they are slow, and they're proud of being slow. I think they'll excel at coverage, but I wouldn't be surprised if by 2030 some here are still asking why data fails when kids are at school or why the slow B3 small cells are still being used.
- MVNOs will still be cheaper, but they'll depend on MNOs that never gave too much data away and a new network that doesn't have an incentive to continue doing what they do now. I expect speed caps or different priorities to be introduced.
If the merger is approved, I hope that:
- There's a redistribution of spectrum if we're going to 3 networks to level the playing field. I'd prefer if they sold it to a new 4th player, but I don't think that will happen.
- VodaThree should be required to deploy their spectrum and spectrum sold to other networks should also have the same requirements, with fines or "use it or lose it" clauses attached to them. Spectrum is limited, we can't have networks hoarding it.
- EE should get some low and high band spectrum (B20 and n78 at least). O2 should get some mid/high band spectrum (some or all: some B3, B32, VF's B38 slice, some n78). VF will cry, but tought luck. Again, networks must use this spectrum.
- Guarantees that cheaper plans won't go away after just 3 years (I have low hopes here).
Overall:
- I think we'll have better service/coverage.
- I think we're creating the conditions for prices to be much higher than they are now.
- I have questions about competition in the future.
- I have no confidence in VF's management.
- I doubt O2 will put a lot of pressure on EE and VF, which is bad for everyone.
I hate to be wrong, but wouldn't mind if the three networks proved me wrong