A Quick Look at the Changing Growth of UK Full Fibre AltNets

We’ve recently been talking a lot about the challenges being faced by alternative broadband network providers (AltNets) and related ISPs in the UK, so it’s worth taking a minute to scan over the latest data from Intelligens Consulting. This summarises the build plans and changing market shares of the largest ten players.

At present around 73% of UK premises can already access a gigabit-capable broadband connection (via any fixed line technology) and that drops to over 45% when only focusing upon Fibre-to-the-Premises (FTTP) lines (here). Established players like Openreach (9.6 million premises) and Virgin Media (15.6 million premises) are the biggest players in this, but over 100+ AltNets also have serious plans.

The new data from Intelligens Consulting doesn’t reveal much that wasn’t already in the public domain, but it does provide a useful – if simplistic – overview of how some of the largest AltNets are faring (data covers the last 6 months) in their quest to challenge the established giants. At least in terms of their committed investment, build pace and premises passed etc.

But there are a few caveats to consider. The data below doesn’t include the crucial figure of take-up (this is tricky since only some AltNets are willing to share such info.). On top of that, it’s also missing some of the most current data (e.g. CityFibre topped 2.5 million premises passed last month, with 2.2 million Ready for Service). This is important because a lot can change (build pace) in the space of a month, thus percentages for market share(s) may not be accurate if the data for every entry isn’t in perfect sync with the operators. Likewise, not all AltNets report their premises pass figures.

All of this is relevant because the UK’s market for AltNets is currently very crowded and overbuild between rivals, even in some less economically viable locations, is on an upward trend. Not to mention the industry-wide strains being felt from rising build costs, growing pressures from investors to deliver viable take-up and competitive threats from Openreach (here and here). A wave of market consolidation is widely anticipated to follow (here and here).

Short Summary of the Report

Overall, the report finds that the top 10 full fibre AltNets now pass 5.4 million premises (Jan 2023 figure), compared to 4.2 million premises in June 2022. This additional 1.2 million premises is a 28% increase upon the number of premises passed just six months ago.

The report claims that “CityFibre has reduced its dominance over the altnets” (i.e. its build share dropped from 41% to 37%), which is put down to significant gains made by Jurassic Fibre, BRSK, Fibrus, Trooli and Netomnia (YouFibre). But as we said earlier, the new report didn’t use CityFibre’s latest figure.

Over the last six months, the top 10 AltNets were also found to have achieved an average monthly build rate of 194,000 premises passed per month, which is an average weekly build rate of 48,500 premises. But that still puts them behind Openreach’s weekly figure of 62,000, although many AltNets are still in the early ramp-up phase of deployment. Now for the infographic..

“Our research estimates that the top 10 altnets will build full fibre networks serving around 30 million premises by around 2026/27. [Virgin Media O2] estimates that it will build fibre to 23 million homes, while Openreach plans to build fibre to 25 million homes by 2026. Collectively, the top 10 altnets, VMO2 and Openreach will reach at least 78 million homes with fibre by 2026.,” said the report.

The suggestion above is that, on average, each UK home will have access to 2.78 fibre connections (roughly three providers). But overbuild will of course be higher in urban areas (some locations may be able to sustain four or more players) and lower in rural ones, although we have seen some rural areas where three or more FTTP networks are building (the viability of that is highly questionable).

“Provided they don’t overbuild each other’s networks and they connect premises to generate cash, we have seen altnet business plans work. Smaller altnets already serving rural areas are less likely to be threatened by Openreach and VMO2 where demand for reliable high-speed connectivity is high and sticky,” concluded the report. In fairness, rural builds cost significantly more and thus carry greater risk, so smaller AltNets will still be threatened by the likes of Openreach and VMO2 encroaching into such areas.