Telecoms Analyst Firm Expects UK FTTP AltNet Consolidation

Telecoms data analysts at global market intelligence firm ThinkCX have published a new update that forecasts how increasing consolidation in the United Kingdom’s overcrowded market for alternative broadband network (altnet) providers could play out during 2023. Needless to say, the new update holds few surprises.

As we’ve said more than a few times over the past couple of years (see here, here and here), the presence of more than a hundred AltNets in the market – all of which are building new gigabit-capable broadband infrastructure (often with overbuild of rival networks) – will, when combined with inflationary and other cost pressures – place a squeeze on the investment taps.

In response, some AltNets may have to slow their pace of build in order to focus on generating enough take-up to satisfy investors. Some will probably succeed in this, while others may not. At the same time, slowing the rollout is a risky thing to do in such an aggressively competitive market, where the ability to go live before your rivals does matter (assuming you’ve got the marketing right, otherwise consumers won’t know you exist).

Sooner or later, the outcome of all this will be reflected by a wave of consolidation. But we should point out that consolidation (mergers and acquisitions) isn’t only born out of a struggling party or parties and may also occur between two relatively successful players, although the goal of both is the same – a positive future outcome for the network and business.

The new report from ThinkCX, which reflects the detail they share via their commercial market intelligence platform, largely echoes the aforementioned beats and highlights how “recessionary shocks in the wider economy are leading analysts and market watchers to forecast a cooling off in 2023 – leading to a frenzy of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) among the altnet community.”

Guy Miller, Telecoms Entrepreneur and CEO at MS3 Networks, added:

“There’s still a lot of investment available to fuel further fibre growth, but it’s only around one-third the level of ask in the market at large and this is likely to trigger more consolidation among providers in the year ahead.

Understanding the market dynamics at a local and regional level will be incredibly important to building M&A investment cases, particularly for operators looking to build a concentrated subscriber base or branch out into underserved areas.”

Sadly, most of ThinCX’s data isn’t freely available to the public, but their summary does include a very limited example from Herefordshire and Gloucestershire in England. For example, in Herefordshire, the data claims to show that the provider with the fastest growing market share is Zzoomm, which has added 0.87% total market share in the last 12 months alone (to 1.15% in total). This is said to be comparable with the market share of Gigaclear (0.53%) and Zen (0.75%).

However, the analyst notes that the picture is somewhat different in neighbouring Gloucestershire, where Zzoomm does not figure at all and Gigaclear is the fastest growing provider (adding 0.77% total market share in the last year, to 4%). “Among the many altnets operating in this county, Zen has only 0.39% market share and is falling,” added ThinkCX.

“As this example shows, market share for these altnets can be highly localised – providing niche business case opportunities for investors looking to expand penetration without committing to new digs. These market share numbers reflect actual service subscriptions, not simply homes passed, and are based on independent technical evidence rather than how customers, providers or vendors have responded to surveys or provided estimates,” said Ron Smouter, VP Sales and Marketing at ThinkCX.

The example data is interesting, but without more context it doesn’t tell us much, not least since different network operators will have different levels of commitment, in different counties, and they may also be at different stages of deployment.

For example, Gigaclear is a much older rural-focused provider (i.e. slower to build and deploying in areas of significantly lower density of premises) and in some counties they have state aid contracts that are growing closer to completion, while others still have a long time left to run. Take note that Zzoomm hasn’t, so far as we can recall, announced any build plans for Gloucestershire.

Furthermore, the mention of Zen Internet, which isn’t depicted in the illustration itself, does seem to be a little bit confusing since they aren’t building full fibre at all and are more of a retail ISP. But retail ISPs do have some relevance due to the attraction of their customer bases and impact at wholesale. Market consolidation may thus involve some of them too.

Otherwise, we don’t know exactly when this period of consolidation will fully kick off and become a much more regular feature of our news, but privately we are already seeing some early indications of strain at a few operators. Given enough time, that may inevitably lead to changes in the market, and perhaps sooner rather than later for some.

Lest we forget that some evidence for this already exists. For example, CityFibre acquired FibreNation from TalkTalk in 2019/20 (here), then in 2021 we saw Swish Fibre gobble up People’s Fibre (here), the 4th Utility consumed Vision Fibre Media (here) and CommunityFibre acquire Box Broadband (here).