Point Topic Predict 98% UK Gigabit Broadband Coverage by 2030

The latest Point Topic forecast of fixed gigabit broadband ISP network coverage for the United Kingdom, which considers both the future impact of “full fibre” (FTTP/B) and Cable (DOCSIS) networks, has predicted that they will reach 87.60% of premises by the end of 2025 and then 98.36% by 2030.

Last week saw the Government move to water-down their £5bn Gigabit Broadband (F20) programme, which previously aimed to ensure that “every home” could access a 1Gbps capable connection by the end of 2025. But it now expects a “minimum” of 85% coverage by that date (i.e. adjusting the original unrealistic time-scale back toward reality) and to then “get as close to 100% as possible” thereafter.

As such the new forecast, which is on aggregate once all the footprints have been overlaid, helps to put the Government’s recent change of target into some useful context. Admittedly, there are still a lot of unknowns, such as precisely how much overbuild will occur between rival networks and whether or not various network operators will even be able to achieve some of their most optimistic targets, which may impact the eventual coverage.

The table below provides a useful summary for the 2025 and 2030 forecasts, which for context also shows what kind of remaining coverage will still exist via slower broadband technologies (e.g. FTTC, DSL [ADSL] and G.fast) – reflecting the areas not covered by gigabit networks. We also get to see how many areas may only be served by just cable or just FTTP (i.e. excluding the areas where cable and FTTP are mutually present – overbuilt).

Point Topic notes that 100% coverage by the end of 2025 was “never a realistic goal” and we’ve long agreed with that. But there’s also a word of caution for those who still aren’t covered by 2030: “We do not expect a fixed gigabit supply available to 100% of homes and businesses until 2030 at the earliest. In our opinion it is very unlikely to happen at all given the costs of deployment in certain situations and the evolution of alternatives.”

On that point the Government has already warned (here) that it considers the “final 1%” of premises “could be prohibitively expensive to reach” via even their gigabit programme, but hopefully by then the new generation of LEO satellite broadband networks will have arrived to help fix the gap (assuming they have enough capacity to do it properly).