Ofcom Predict 95 Percent of UK Covered by Gigabit Broadband by Jan 2029

The telecoms regulator has today published the fifth edition of their forecast for Planned Network Deployments, which has again revised down its prediction of future UK broadband coverage after many network operators slowed their rollouts. The report predicts that full fibre (FTTP) lines will reach up to 92% of homes by January 2029 – rising up to 95% for gigabit-capable networks (i.e. FTTP and Cable).

According to the regulator’s latest data to January 2026 (here), some 82% of UK homes are currently within reach of a Fibre-to-the-Premises (FTTP) network (up from 78% in July 2025) and this rises to 89% for gigabit-capable networks (up from 87%). The latter is being driven by both FTTP from multiple operators and Virgin Media’s older DOCSIS 3.1 powered cable network (there’s a lot of overbuild between these in urban areas).

The new report goes further and, based on the stated deployment plans of network operators as of January 2026 (looking up to 3 years in advance), attempts to predict how much coverage will be achieved by January 2029. These plans include those that are privately funded as well as any plans that are supported through public funds/intervention.

The vast majority of this FTTP and gigabit-capable broadband coverage tends to come from commercial builds – mostly in urban areas, although rural areas will also see substantial network upgrades. The UK Government’s £5bn Project Gigabit programme is specifically focused on the final 10-20% of hardest to reach premises (i.e. aiming to extend gigabit coverage to around 99% “nationwide” by 2032).

However, regular readers will quickly note that the forecast has weakened this time around, with Ofcom’s previous 2025 report predicting that FTTP would reach up to 95%, with gigabit networks reaching up to 97%, by January 2028 (here). But many alternative network operators have continued to scale-back their planned deployments since then, due to rising competition and high build costs / interest rates etc.

What’s the revised projection for 2029?

The new report states that full fibre could be available to 28.1 million UK homes (92% of all residential properties) by the end of 2028. If all planned deployments are realised, the number of homes with access to full fibre will increase from 24.9 million (82%) as of January 2026 to 28.1 million by January 2029. During the same period gigabit-capable coverage could increase to 29 million homes (95%), up from 27.1 million (89%).

Both rural and urban areas are being targeted by network operators. If all plans are realised, the number of homes with gigabit-capable coverage in urban areas could increase from 24.2 million (93%) as of January 2026 to 25.3 million (97%) by January 2029, and from 2.9 million (66%) to 3.7 million (86%) in rural areas.

The regulator also estimates that 73% of UK homes will have access to two or more gigabit-capable networks by the end of 2028, falling to 36% for those with access to at least three gigabit-capable networks by the same date.

Ofcom’s forecast splits the figures down across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. But take note that they typically give two figures below for each technology type, which reflects the range between their most optimistic build forecast and the more pessimistic, albeit highest confidence, one. This is why the January 2029 expectations for UK gigabit coverage range from 93% (high confidence) to 95% (most optimistic). The reality may sit somewhere in-between.

Separately, Ofcom said they also anticipate an expansion of FWA (fixed wireless) networks offering high-speed broadband services (at least 100Mbit/s download speeds). The regulator’s data shows that around 6,950 additional, geographically distinct, FWA masts are being planned or set to be upgraded across the UK between January 2026 and January 2029.