Broadband Woes as BBC Plan to Switch Off Terrestrial UK TV by 2030

The Director-General of the BBC, Tim Davie, has given broadband ISPs and mobile operators something extra to think about after he proposed that the corporation could plan to “switch-off” terrestrial TV and radio signals by the end of 2030. In their place, the broadcaster would focus on online content and streaming (e.g. iPlayer).

The last time we reported on the BBC specifically was in January 2022, when the UK Government proposed to end the existing BBC TV Licence Fee from 2027 and replace it with a new funding model, which could include a Netflix style subscription, government grants, more advertising or possibly a levy or tax on consumer broadband ISP bills etc. (here). But that is a whole other debate.

At the time, some reports suggested that the day would come when the BBC also needed to completely retire its terrestrial TV and radio signals, which would save money as they’d no longer need to use a huge network of masts to broadcast signals across the UK. Likewise, homes would no longer have any need for a TV aerial on their roofs.

In a speech hosted by the Royal Television Society yesterday, the Director-General set out his vision for what a 2030s media market could look like, which included a proposal to “switch off of broadcast” by 2030.

Tim Davie, BBC Director-General, said:

“Firstly, we must work together to ensure that everyone is connected, and can get their TV and radio via the internet. This isn’t something to resist. A fully connected UK has very significant benefits for society and our economy. It would unleash huge opportunities for innovation. 

For the BBC, internet-only distribution is an opportunity to connect more deeply with our audiences and to provide them with better services and choice than broadcast allows. It provides a significant editorial opportunities. A switch off of broadcast will and should happen over time, and we should be active in planning for it.  

Of course, there’s a bad way it could happen. Where access to content is no longer universal. Or is unaffordable for too many. Where the gateway to content is owned by well capitalised overseas companies.  

So, we must close gaps and guarantee accessibility for all. Forecasts suggest that by 2030, about 2 million homes will still not be using fixed-line broadband and even in a few years 5% of the UK landmass may not be covered by 5G or 4G to provide content on the move. Now I know that there is a renewed effort to drive this coverage by Government and the DCMS; this is critical. 

While the BBC cannot fund the build-out it can collaborate with others to make a move to online attractive to all, and play a big part in educating people about the transition. We will become more active as part of a coalition to make this happen.  

Let’s all work to plan it flawlessly and leave no-one behind, and ensure that UK businesses and audiences get maximum benefit.”

In terms of fixed broadband coverage, which at present is the most relevant factor, the Government’s £5bn Project Gigabit programme aims to extend networks capable of delivering 1000Mbps (1Gbps) download speeds to “at least” 85% of UK premises by the end of 2025, rising to “nationwide” coverage (c.99%) by around 2030 (here). Yesterday’s forecast from Point Topic (here) suggested that 97% might be possible by 2030, which we think is reasonable.

However, you don’t need 1Gbps speeds for HD (High Definition) or 4K (UltraHD) video streams / IPTV services, which tend to be the norm for such services TODAY (tomorrow may be different). At present, 10Mbps (USO) can already handle a couple of HD streams, while you’d need c.15-30Mbps for a single 4K stream, depending upon quality and codec. But by 2030 newer video codecs will make it possible to compress these streams into even smaller bitrates.

According to Thinkbroadband, some 97.39% of UK premises are already within reach of a 30Mbps+ capable “superfast broadband” connection, which does tend to suggest that the gap that needs to be filled is relatively small. Naturally this doesn’t help with scenarios where people, particularly much older users, may not even have broadband at home, but solving that will be an altogether more difficult challenge.

On the other hand, the move to IP-based phone services will effectively make it a requirement, after 2025, for those seeking to only retain a landline phone at home to have a broadband connection, even if only a very basic one (e.g. Openreach’s 0.5Mbps FTTP tier exists for precisely this purpose – voice traffic is not very demanding). But once you have that connection, then getting extra speed to power a broadband-based TV / streaming service becomes less of an issue.

However, this does still leave the final 2-3% of premises, which often exist in “Very Hard to Reach” areas (mostly rural, but also some digitally isolated urban spots). Tackling this will also remain extremely challenging, and the government are already looking at various solutions, which was underlined by their new trials of Starlink’s LEO satellite broadband service (here).

The Director-General also mentions 4G and 5G mobile services, although in our experience the mobile broadband performance of these solutions in many rural areas is still too variable to be considered a reliable part of the solution, but that may improve as the £1bn Shared Rural Network (SRN) project pushes 4G to 95% of the UK’s landmass by the end of 2025. Nevertheless, this will still leave a gap, and we have our doubts about the 95% target being met and regional differences in the coverage (e.g. in Scotland the expected coverage figure for 4G from all operators by 2025/26 will still be closer to 74%).

The move to switch-off terrestrial TV will no doubt also see a much larger shift in capacity demands, which will place a heavy additional burden on both broadband ISPs and mobile network operators. Admittedly, such providers use sophisticated Content Delivery Networks (CDN) and systems to help manage the load from such events, which caches popular content closer in their networks to end-users (i.e. improves performance without adding network strain). But there might still be some performance detriment, unless time is allowed for effective planning, which may require ISPs to coordinate more closely with the BBC.

At the end of the day, the BBC are proposing a significant shift, which will have impacts across a lot of different areas, many of which fall outside our focus today. But ensuring truly universal coverage of an affordable superfast or better broadband connection must form part of that.