Top UK Local Authorities by Predicted Full Fibre Growth for 2025

A new study has attempted to forecast which ten UK local authorities will see the most significant increase in their coverage of Fibre-to-the-Premises (FTTP) based broadband ISP networks over the next two years. Topping the table were North East Lincolnshire, Oxford and Stevenage.

First things first. This study has been put together by Uswitch.com, but it’s based on raw data from Ofcom’s Planned Network Deployment forecast, which was largely overlooked when it was first published because it formed part of the regulator’s much larger Connection Nations 2022 study (releasing too much data in one day tends to do that).

As we reported at the time, Ofcom’s forecast attempted to predict how coverage will unfold by March 2025. If all network deployments are realised as planned, the number of properties covered by full fibre will increase from 11 million (as of September 2022) to 24.8 million by March 2025 (84% of UK), while gigabit-capable coverage (including other technologies like Virgin Media’s coax cables) could be in excess of 90%.

By comparison, the Government’s new £5bn state aid funded Project Gigabit ambition aims to make gigabit-capable broadband available to at least 85% of UK premises by the end of 2025 and “nationwide” coverage by 2030 (here). This will be achieved by focusing its support on those in the hardest to reach rural areas (i.e. the final 20% of premises). But the first contracts to be awarded under that came too late to be factored into Ofcom’s study.

What Uswitch has done is extract some of Ofcom’s raw data to create a sort of top 10 list, which identifies the ten UK local authorities that will see the most significant increase in their coverage of full fibre networks between March 2022 and March 2025.

Overall, North East Lincolnshire came top of the table and is expected to see a 96.51% increase, with its coverage growing from 2.42% today to an impressive 98.93% by early 2025. Similarly, Blaenau Gwent will go from 3.57% to 96.34% coverage, while Castle Point will go from 3.35% to 99.59%.

At the opposite end of this scale sits the Isles of Scilly, which were the only area “not expected to see any developments in full fibre integration” by March 2025, leaving less than one in 50 (1.97%) premises with access to full fibre. West Dunbartonshire and Oadby and Wigston are predicted to experience just a slight gain in full fibre development, with increases of 2.82% and 5.46% providing availability to just 4.96% and 8.62% of premises respectively.

However, it’s important to remember the caveat we mentioned earlier, which is that Ofcom’s forecast can only take account of builds that have already been planned. As such, the Project Gigabit contracts (e.g. for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly), as well as any other builds that had yet to be announced by March 2022, will not have been considered.

Uswitch also fails to clarify which level of confidence it was using to produce this report. Ofcom’s original data defined this by three categories. Category 1 reflected projects for which detailed planning and/or deployment were in progress, while Category 2 added those for which financial approval had been obtained and Category 3 included those for which financial approval had not yet been obtained. We suspect they probably adopted all categories to get the above outcome.