Ofcom Predict 98 Percent of UK Covered by Gigabit Broadband in May 2027
The UK telecoms regulator, Ofcom, has today published the third edition of their forecast for Planned Network Deployments, which predicts that full fibre (FTTP) broadband ISP lines are on course to cover 95-96% of all UK properties by May 2027 (29 million premises) – rising to 97-98% for “gigabit-capable” networks (i.e. FTTP and Cable).
According to the regulator’s latest data to January 2024 (here), some 62% (18.7m) of UK homes are currently within reach of a Fibre-to-the-Premises (FTTP) network (up from 48% in Jan 2023) and this rises to 80% for gigabit-capable networks (up from 73%). The latter is being driven by both FTTP from multiple operators and Virgin Media’s older cable DOCSIS 3.1 network (there’s a lot of overbuild between these in urban areas).
The new report goes further and, based on the stated deployment plans of network operators as of May 2024 (looking up to 3 years in advance), attempts to predict how much coverage will be achieved by May 2027. These plans include those that are privately funded as well as any plans that are supported through public funds/intervention.
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The vast majority of this FTTP and gigabit-capable broadband coverage tends to come from commercial builds – mostly in urban areas, although rural areas will also see substantial network upgrades. The UK Government’s £5bn Project Gigabit programme is specifically focused on the final 10-20% of hardest to reach premises (i.e. aiming to extend gigabit coverage to at least 85% of UK premises by the end of 2025 and then around 99% “nationwide” by 2030).
If all of the planned deployments are realised, Ofcom’s report forecasts that gigabit-capable networks in urban areas could increase from 22 million premises (85%) today to 25.6m (99%) in 2027 and from 2.1m (49%) to 3.8m (88%) in rural areas. But this picture varies a fair bit across the different regions and local authorities.
The following forecast splits the figures down across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Ofcom also gives an additional “High Confidence” forecast, which gives a forecast for coverage from plans that have reached both the Low Level Design stage and for which funding has actually been committed (this excludes a lot of highly likely, but not yet 100% committed, build plans).
In addition, Ofcom’s new data also has a look at overbuild between rival networks and estimates that up to 81% of UK properties will be able to take gigabit-capable services from two or more providers by 2027. Finally, the regulator also anticipates an expansion of Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) networks offering speeds of 100Mbit/s+. “Our data reports that, over the planned period, around 4,300 further FWA masts are being planned or upgraded across the UK, in addition to around 28,500 existing ones, that may be capable of offering high speed broadband,” although they acknowledged that mapper the actual reach and performance of such networks was difficult.
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Mark is a professional technology writer, IT consultant and computer engineer from Dorset (England), he also founded ISPreview in 1999 and enjoys analysing the latest telecoms and broadband developments. Find me on X (Twitter), Mastodon, Facebook, BlueSky, Threads.net and Linkedin.
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another BS story from Ofcom. So many towns multiple covered by several full fibre providers whilst others left to rot that aren’t even difficult to do.
Archers Court Exchange, 7,000 odd connections and still BT not fibred, leaving people on FTTC (most around 20mbps-40mbps) and ADSL where FTTC is too far. Supposed to be well in progress by Dec 2023 and work not even started. Majority if not all is ducted or poles with little or none direct buried.
Then OfCom include Virgin HFC network – lets not talk about that and it’s issues…..Even if GIG1 works in an area, the hassle with Customer Services and contract renewals and other cock-ups as in VM user forum mean its a no-go for many.
Indeed – although we have VM HFC, I wouldn’t touch it until the network wholesaling is complete and we can buy a service from someone else. So for now we are stuck on 67Mbps copper, but with A&A so an excellent and reliable service.
Why is it BS? 80% coverage still means 20% don’t have it, which is a lot so you could pick loads of examples. Here a few months ago we had no fibre option now we have Openreach and CityFibre so things can change in a particular area quite quickly once they get around to you.
No correct. There is FTTP available in parts of Archers Court exchange area
Just pick on one random address…
https://ibb.co/SNxZVM0
Weirdly in a country with over 30 million premises an exchange with 7,000 can be totally free of full fibre, which yours isn’t, while still leaving plenty enough premises to have loads of full fibre in place and more on the way.
There is very few residential that can get FTTP from Archers Court. Most are business. The majority cannot. No explanation on delay though, even though BT themselves said it should be well underway by now.
I have to agree on overbuild which makes no sense. Build to everywhere first with one provider then think about overbuilding. Most people are not interested in competition and what provider they get as long as it’s faster to what they have now.
Most people are not interested in competition and what provider they get as long as it’s *cheaper than* what they have now.
That’s the Vodafone/Cityfibre model: sell it 50p a month cheaper than the current service, and people will switch. It’s also why we have this nonsense about mid-contract price rises: it’s to make the initial price look cheaper than it really is.
Whoop, perhaps under 3 years left to wait then. Looks like there are 3 possible options here as to who will arrive first: Openreach (who have covered half the city already and have the rest in their ever-vague plans), CityFibre (who also covered half then gave up last year), or VM (we have fibre to the very-near-cabinet), who are going to ultimately replace cable with FTTP everywhere whilst also wholesaling the network. Let the race commence in this fibre desert!
Indeed. If all three complete it might be enough to satisfy your sense of entitlement. The 15% with no fibre or cable are I’m sure deeply moved by your plight of needing full fibre so badly you refuse to purchase the 1100/110 service available to you.
Yes, Witcher – I’m entitled to wish for the same superior technology offer that 69% of the country already has. And no, Witcher, I don’t wish to be a VM customer!
Not if Project Gigabit Lot winners have their way!
It would be good to see how lot winners for the Project Gigabit Broadband are going against their advertised delivery targets. One of these promised build connections to “start in early 2024” but no news at all even on their project’s portal website, and checking their availability tool for postcodes throughout the county it comes a total blank.
I think when they say 96 to 99 percent on gigabits they must be referring to British urban centres (cities and some towns), completely excluding the rural areas that need the investment too.
Need to complete alot of MDU’s to get it that high (here’s me hoping).
Openreach is deploying FTTP in mass and will contune unil all copper is gone (less then 30 days from FTTP connection date on my pole that had the FTTP installed just needs the other end connecting to the aggregation point)
Still think FTTC was a waste of money (they did get mostly paid to install it) and ewaste should have been FTTP from The start
“Ofcom Predict 98 Percent”
Well, I hope MDU teams hear this…
Right now big residence of several properties, if left behind, are not getting contacted to wire shared buildings and install ONT.
I fear, people in this situation, like me, will become the forgotten 2% that no company cares about.
I’ll believe it in my street when I see it! I look and check every week for news of deployments, and all I see is full fibre being available to all my friends, family, and the area surrounding my address missing me out.
I need to stop the obsession with it, but I’m determined to get off 35Mbps FTTC.
Stay obsessed, like me, until we both get there. Hopefully within the next 2 years in most of our cases! Keep pressure on suppliers to keep cracking on, although we can lament the incredible chaos and lack of coordination in the wider rollout.
Same here on my road in Andover. Zero sign of fttp from openreach, virgin, altnets etc. Just the vague ‘2026’ date on the checker and dreary awful fttc to use until then :/
Should’ve been at 100% years ago…
Street says dec 2026, so we will see.
It’s a shambles to think that we almost had fibre being rolled out in the 80s, to the point factories had been stood up to produce the fibre etc, until Thatcher canned it in the hope US investment would happen that never came.
We didn’t nearly have FTTP in the 1980’s. No sane government would spend many billions of pounds putting fibre in the ground decades before there was a demand for it.
Nice for the people who get it, they probably already get a reasonable connection, we have around 7 down and 0.5 up shared between 3 adults in this household. No plans for any infrastructure upgrade Mobile signal also very poor, otherwise that could be a solution. Just leaves Starlink which is expensive. I can only wish for a universal fast broadband infrastructure in this country rather than some areas having multiple put in. All boils down to money, any area that is a bit more difficult gets left behind.
“Ofcom Predict 98 Percent of UK Covered”
And this 98% is… holistic, the geographic, or even acknowledgement of, for all the hard to reach /’proffit ineffective’, or just the easy densely populated /proffitable ones? Talk about agnostic social inclusion ‘marketting spin, not.
One would think if it is a National initiative/ endeavour it would be the same for all, equitable rather than just dog eat dog.