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Forrester Predicts Broadband Uptake Surge
By: MarkJ - 17 December, 2007 (1:38 PM)

Forrester Research has predicted a surge in West European residential broadband uptake of 48 million households over the next six years, rising from 44% penetration now to 71% by the end of 2013.

Dialup will naturally decrease, ultimately accounting for just 2% of all connections. WiMAX wireless and Fibre To The Home (FTTH) cable will increase but only marginally to 8% of all connections:

Forrester Research analyst, Pete Nuthall, states: “The addition of 48m new broadband connections may seem a healthy opportunity for broadband suppliers, but our forecast reveals the key challenge for ISPs will be managing customer churn.

In 2008, we estimate the level of churn to be 23% across Western Europe, this will peak in 2012 at 31%. Most at risk are incumbents such as BT, France Télécom, Deutsche Telekom, and KPN, due to regulatory action that force them to open up their networks to competition through local loop unbundling (LLU). Incumbents will need to reassess existing retention strategies in the light of increased price-based competition from alternative ISPs.

The statistics suggest that Internet providers will ultimately succeed in signing up a significant quantity of customers that currently see no need for broadband, though we’ve yet to see much movement on that front.


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