Rival Broadband ISPs May Scoop 4 Million UK Customers by 2025

A new Point Topic study, commissioned by TV and WiFi Mesh provider Netgem, has predicted that Alternative Networks (AltNet) and “Challenger ISPs” could gain up to 1 million additional UK customers by 2025, which would increase their market share to 14.5% (3.74 million customers) from 12.5% in 2021.

The figures seem plausible, although it should be noted that today’s market may be more complex than the study’s authors were able to fully reflect. The study defines “incumbent” ISPs as being BT, TalkTalk, Sky Broadband, Virgin Media and Vodafone. Meanwhile, AltNets are defined as “operators deploying full fibre broadband networks across the UK at a wholesale or retail level” (e.g. Hyperoptic, CommunityFibre).

Finally, Challenger ISPs are stated to be “non-incumbent providers that resell wholesale services from the likes of Openreach to businesses and customers” (Shell Energy, iDNET, Zen Internet etc.). According to Point Topic, the current efforts will help make “full fibre” (FTTP) available to 85% of the population by 2025, which is said to be a “massive increase from 26% at the end of 2020.”

However, we think Netgem or PT may have confused “full fibre” with “gigabit-capable” connections (gigabit can include Virgin Media’s HFC network), since FTTP only covered around 18% at the end of 2020 and Ofcom’s Sept 2020 figure for gigabit coverage was 27% (or 37% if using the more up-to-date Thinkbroadband model – here).

We’re not sure why the formatting on the above graphic is so poorly aligned to the graphics (that’s not our doing), but you get the idea. Naturally, Netgem has a vested interest here, not least by highlighting how adoption of their own products can help ISPs to differentiate themselves in an increasingly competitive market.

Shan Eisenberg, CCO of Netgem UK, said:

“To make the most of the gigabit broadband revolution, altnet and challenger ISPs need to think about offering customers more ways to get the most out of their faster connection as they make the jump from copper to fibre and the leap from household names to newer entrants.

This could help make growth projections even higher than the data suggests. In fact we now have market evidence that attachment rates of 50% can be reached for both TV and whole home WiFi allowing ISPs to increase both their fishing pool and ARPU, and in turn smash their growth targets.”

At the end of the day none of this is too surprising because a huge amount of private investment – last year reported to be in the region of almost £8bn – is currently flooding in to support the deployment of new AltNets.

One complex issue here is that some aforementioned incumbent providers may use AltNets too, such as TalkTalk (CityFibre and Freedom Fibre), Zen (CityFibre) and Vodafone (CityFibre), while others may follow suit later.

On top of that it’s very difficult to forecast what may happen to a study like this if, for example, some of those incumbents suddenly decided to foster a mass migration away from Openreach and on to one of the newer altnets, which must be considered as a serious possibility for further down the line.