Point Topic has predicted the total number of high-speed lines in the 40 biggest broadband countries in the world will grow from 393m by the end of 2008 to 635m by 2013. Broadband in the rest of the world will grow from 16m to 48m lines in the same period, so the world will add 273m lines to reach 683m in total.

This figure represents a 10.8% per year compound growth rate, which is well down from 27.7% per year in the 2004 to 2008 period but still moving in the right direction. The slowdown is typically blamed upon natural market saturation, much as we've suggested before.


Clearly take-up in China, the USA, India, Brazil and Germany looks set to benefit the most over the next few years while others will continue to see a slow market environment. The forecast assume that the recession will also cut back the rate of growth in more industrialised countries (e.g. UK) over the next couple of years, but will have little effect in the emerging economies.