Gov Levelling Up Plan Confirms Nationwide Gigabit Broadband for 2030

The government will today publish their “flagship” Levelling Up White Paper, which sets out their “plan to transform the UK by spreading opportunity and prosperity to all parts of it” and also confirms their revised broadband target – that “by 2030, the UK will have nationwide gigabit-capable broadband.”

We first spotted MPs using the 2030 date last November (here), although the language back then wasn’t quite as bold and avoided the use of “nationwide“. Instead, the earlier references spoke of an “ambition of gigabit capabilities across the UK by 2030” or of their aim to “deliver full gigabit-capable coverage to the final 20% by 2030, where it is value for money to do so.”

Just to recap. Until November 2021, the £5bn Project Gigabit programme had generally only tended to express its target as seeking to extend such speeds – using a mix of different broadband technologies (FTTP, Hybrid Fibre Coax and Wireless etc.) – to reach at least 85% of UK premises by the end of 2025, and to then to get “as close to 100% as possible.” The project itself aims to tackle those in the final 20% of hardest to reach (e.g. rural) areas.

The project has generally tended to assume that the first 80% of coverage would be achieved by commercial deployments, which is a fairly safe bet given that Virgin Media’s (VMO2) DOCSIS 3.1 upgrade has already helped to push coverage to c.65% (here) and Openreach’s FTTP rollout alone will to hit c.80% by December 2026 (25 million premises) – this is before we even consider the mass of alternative networks.

Suffice to say that last year’s initially subtle language change reflected the Government’s increasing confidence in both the market’s ability to deliver strong coverage, and their expectations of what Project Gigabit will be able to achieve over a realistic timescale (unlike the original goal of “full fibre for all … by 2025“, which was highly ambitious but not even remotely realistic).

The Levelling Up White Paper

The new Levelling Up programme, which claims to represent a “new way of making and implementing policy“, primarily just seems to re-announce a lot of existing aims and investments (some of these, like the vague 5G mobile target, have existed since 2017). At its heart sits a list of “12 bold, national missions – all quantifiable and to be achieved by 2030” and these “will be given status in law” in their Levelling Up and Regeneration Bill (LURB).

Prime Minister Boris Johnson said:

“From day one, the defining mission of this government has been to level up this country, to break the link between geography and destiny so that no matter where you live you have access to the same opportunities.

The challenges we face have been embedded over generations and cannot be dug out overnight, but this White Paper is the next crucial step.

It is a vision for the future that will see public spending on R&D increased in every part of the country; transport connectivity improving; faster broadband in every community; life expectancies rising; violent crime falling; schools improving; and private sector investment being unleashed.

It is the most comprehensive, ambitious plan of its kind that this country has ever seen and it will ensure that the government continues to rise to the challenge and deliver for the people of the UK.”

As you might have already guessed from the introduction to this article, the 2030 date for “nationwide gigabit-capable broadband” sits in fourth place on the new missions list. We should point out that the Conservative’s 2017 manifesto actually promised “to have the majority of the population covered by a 5G signal by 2027,” which is thus downgraded to 2030 below (majority could of course equal anything over 50% and is an easy goal).

The 12 Missions to Level Up the UK

1. By 2030, pay, employment and productivity will have risen in every area of the UK, with each containing a globally competitive city, with the gap between the top performing and other areas closing.

2. By 2030, domestic public investment in Research & Development outside the Greater South East will increase by at least 40% and at least one third over the Spending Review period, with that additional government funding seeking to leverage at least twice as much private sector investment over the long term to stimulate innovation and productivity growth.

3. By 2030, local public transport connectivity across the country will be significantly closer to the standards of London, with improved services, simpler fares and integrated ticketing.

4. By 2030, the UK will have nationwide gigabit-capable broadband and 4G coverage, with 5G coverage for the majority of the population.

5. By 2030, the number of primary school children achieving the expected standard in reading, writing and maths will have significantly increased. In England, this will mean 90% of children will achieve the expected standard, and the percentage of children meeting the expected standard in the worst performing areas will have increased by over a third.

6. By 2030, the number of people successfully completing high-quality skills training will have significantly increased in every area of the UK. In England, this will lead to 200,000 more people successfully completing high-quality skills training annually, driven by 80,000 more people completing courses in the lowest skilled areas.

7. By 2030, the gap in Healthy Life Expectancy (HLE) between local areas where it is highest and lowest will have narrowed, and by 2035 HLE will rise by 5 years.

8. By 2030, well-being will have improved in every area of the UK, with the gap between top performing and other areas closing.

9. By 2030, pride in place, such as people’s satisfaction with their town centre and engagement in local culture and community, will have risen in every area of the UK, with the gap between the top performing and other areas closing.

10. By 2030, renters will have a secure path to ownership with the number of first-time buyers increasing in all areas; and the government’s ambition is for the number of non-decent rented homes to have fallen by 50%, with the biggest improvements in the lowest performing areas.

11. By 2030, homicide, serious violence, and neighbourhood crime will have fallen, focused on the worst-affected areas.

12. By 2030, every part of England that wants one will have a devolution deal with powers at or approaching the highest level of devolution and a simplified, long-term funding settlement.

The Government says these missions will be underpinned by a “suite of public metrics to track progress and monitor the evolution of spatial disparities“. The government will also legislate such that it has a statutory duty to publish an annual report updating the public on the progress of these missions (we’d rather it was quarterly or biannual), with a new Levelling Up Advisory Council providing “further support and constructive analysis.”

Other parts of the claimed “system change” include: all policy across Whitehall being aligned with the levelling up agenda and therefore subject to spatial analysis, and a transformation of the government’s approach to data and evaluation – with a new independent body created to improve transparency of local government performance.

But back to 1Gbps broadband. Given the situation in “Very Hard to Reach” areas, we suspect that “nationwide” may, at best, translate to slightly below 100% coverage of gigabit-capable broadband networks (e.g. 99.7%), but to be fair that would still be a wonderful achievement – even if true universal coverage (100%) might not be practically achievable.

At present, it’s already taken since 2010 to expand “superfast broadband” (30Mbps+) networks to around 97% of premises and that was relatively easy (reusing a lot of existing copper lines and infrastructure), which compares to the huge civil engineering task involved with pushing gigabit broadband to a similar level, and in a similar amount of time.

In short, we think 97-99% by 2030 is a reasonable expectation for gigabit coverage, but much will depend upon the success or failure of Project Gigabit. All of that will be hard to predict until we start to see the first contracts being awarded later this year.

UPDATE 1:52pm

We’ve had a comment from Hyperoptic.

Dana Tobak, CEO of Hyperoptic, said:

“At Hyperoptic we are delighted to see that the LUR Bill confirms the Government’s commitment to nationwide gigabit capable broadband coverage by 2030. As the UK’s largest exclusively full fibre internet service provider, we look forward to playing our part in delivering that ambition.”

On the remark about being the “UK’s largest exclusively full fibre internet service provider,” that is of course debatable, not least since the ISP has not released any solid coverage figures for years and doesn’t define what they mean by “largest” (customers, premises passed etc.). Lest we forget that CityFibre currently appears to have a bigger FTTP-only network than Hyperoptic. Equally, there are some Openreach based ISPs that only sell FTTP products, and they could easily qualify as having larger coverage.

UPDATE 4:18pm

A bunch of new comments have come in.

Greg Mesch, CEO at CityFibre, said:

“We’re delighted to see the role of digital infrastructure positioned so centrally in the Government’s levelling up agenda and we welcome the continued political focus it will benefit from.

Full Fibre is the gold standard technology on which we must all remain focused. Its speed, reliability and ability to be upgraded easily over time is what sets it apart to unleash the highest levels of economic, social and environmental benefits.

Thanks to the emergence of digital infrastructure competition, the industry is making great progress in its rollouts of Full Fibre networks. To maintain or exceed this pace, unlock productivity benefits even faster, and bring down prices for consumers, the Government and Ofcom must continue to protect and nurture a healthy competitive market.

With a £4bn Full Fibre investment programme covering nearly three hundred cities, towns and villages, and with over a million homes already able to access our world-class network, we look forward to playing an increasingly critical role supporting the levelling up mission and the UK’s wider digital transformation.”

Tristia Harrison, CEO of TalkTalk, said:

“We welcome the government’s ambition to bring full fibre to all households across the UK by 2030. As a North West based company we’re passionate about making sure full fibre is available for everyone, regardless of where they live, and we’ll continue to work with the government and all our partners to achieve this.”

Gareth Elliott, Director of Policy and Communications at Mobile UK, said:

“Mobile operators continue to invest heavily in their networks so that they can work towards the Government’s targets; however, a renewed focus from the Government to assist local authorities is essential, which is why Mobile UK is calling for funding for digital champions for councils to help coordinate and prioritise mobile infrastructure deployment.”

UPDATE 5:06pm

Openreach has also responded.

Clive Selley, Openreach CEO, said:

“Better broadband is a massive catalyst for positive change. It boosts productivity, connects forgotten communities, helps people back into work and supports new sustainable business models and public services – so we’re pleased to see it’s a priority for Government.

At Openreach, we’re already investing billions of pounds to build ultrafast, ultra-reliable full fibre technology to 25 million homes by 2026 – including a big commitment to rural Britain.

We’ve reached more than 6.5 million homes so far but finishing the job, and going even further, will need Government support – for example they can act right now to speed up access to flats, social housing and private land across the country.

Reaching 100 percent of the country will also need more companies to join us and get involved in connecting rural communities with a mixture of satellite, wireless and fixed technologies.”

UPDATE 3rd Feb 2022

A comment has come in from a wireless ISP.

Natalie Duffield, CEO of WeLink Communications UK, said:

“We believe that fixed wireless networks can help Britain hit the target of nationwide gigabit-capable broadband by 2030 by rapidly extending the reach of fibre into broadband blackspots. Wireless networks can quickly overcome the delays and disruption affecting the deployment of fibre in built-up urban areas, where thousands of households and businesses remain incapable of receiving decent broadband.

Our mmWave wireless network is a greener solution, using above ground, accessible kit that can be constantly upgraded; it transmits a tiny fraction of the power compared to mainstream 5G equipment and will soon be capable of delivering speeds up to 2.5 Gigabits.

Why should communities in left-behind locations have to wait until the next decade to enjoy the full social and economic benefits of the digital world when the technology to bring them lightning-fast connectivity exists here and now?”