This study—the first-ever to assess internet infrastructure and model current/projected traffic patterns independent of one another—indicates that Internet access infrastructure, specifically in North America, will cease to be adequate for supporting demand within the next three to five years.

The financial investment required to “bridge the gap” between demand and capacity ranges from $42 billion to $55 billion in the U.S., primarily to be spent on broadband access capacity; this is roughly 60-70 percent above and beyond the $72 billion service providers are already planning to invest. Required investment globally is estimated at $137 billion, again primarily in broadband access.

The findings indicate that by 2010, the Internet’s capacity will not likely accommodate user demand. As a result, users could increasingly encounter Internet “brownouts” or interruptions to the applications they’ve become accustomed to using on the internet. For example, it may take more than one attempt to confirm an online purchase or it may take longer to download the latest video from YouTube. Overall, the impact of this inadequate infrastructure will be primarily to slow down the pace of innovation. The next Amazon, Google or YouTube might not arise -- not from a lack of user demand, but because of insufficient infrastructure preventing applications and companies from emerging.