The UK might have to wait until 2015 before mobile operators start upgrading their Mobile Broadband networks with faster internet access technologies and more capacity because, according to the latest research from Informa Telecoms & Media (ITM), it would not be economically viable for them to do it any sooner.

The study claims that existing HSPA (max of 14.4Mbps) based 3G networks, which can barely muster average real-world mobile internet download speeds of much above 1Mbps, should still be able to handle both current and future traffic demands in the medium-term.

Bizarrely ITM does not expect traffic congestion to start appearing until 2013 and even then only in certain "hotspot areas", which suggests that they don't live in the real world where Mobile Broadband congestion and instability is already a problem for some.


Informa estimates that a new LTE deployment will cost an additional £36.3m (US$58m) compared to upgrading existing networks, assuming that the LTE deployment begins during 2013 (i.e. after Ofcom's spectrum auctions). The cost of each Gigabyte (GB) of traffic on the network is £4.06 (US$6.5) during 2011, gradually declining to under £1.25 (US$2) in 2015.

In fairness an upgrade of the current HSPA technology could probably include adoption of the latest HSPA+ standard, which offers lower latency times and a maximum theoretical download speed of up to 42Mbps (22Mbps uploads). This lacks the robust nature of LTE and its significantly faster top speeds / capacity management, but some UK operators are already considering it.

The UK government believes that mobile operators will play a part in its aim to deliver a minimum broadband speed of 2Mbps to everybody by 2015 (USC). This, coupled with the release of new Digital Switchover spectrum, presents an interesting dilemma. Is it better to spend cash going the HSPA+ rout, when you'll just have to replace it with LTE in two-three years time, or go direct to LTE? They'll probably do a bit of both.

UPDATE 08:35am

Ofcom has just revealed that it will be 2014 before operators can actually deploy on the main LTE friendly spectrum anyway (here).