Posted: 05th May, 2011 By: MarkJ
ABI Research has predicted that the next generation of superfast
Long Term Evolution ( LTE ) based Mobile Broadband services will top
16 million subscribers the end of this year. Indeed 12 countries have already launched commercial LTE services, which will one day achieve peak (shared)
download speeds of between 100Mbps and 1024Mbps (1Gbps).
The Global Mobile Suppliers Association recently reported that there were
100 LTE-ready devices. At present only 13% of those were Smartphone's and media tablets, but that will change. In 2014, more than 205 million LTE mobile devices will ship, 72% of which will be handsets.
ABI Research Director, Phil Solis, added:
"The shift to 4G differs from the shift to 3G because of smartphones’ capabilities. In the US, people are actively looking for 4G as a handset feature, spurred by heavy marketing of 4G smartphones. Sprint’s success with WiMAX smartphones is an indicator of the scale Verizon Wireless and AT&T can achieve with LTE smartphones this year."
However the real growth isn't expected to hit until the 2012-2014 period. A February 2011 study (
here) from market intelligence firm iSuppli (
IHS iSuppli) predicted that
by 2014 LTE will be home to 303.1 Million subscribers, dwarfing rivals (e.g. WiMAX).
Ofcom's current UK timetable for LTE deployment, which is connected to its spectrum auction and release programme, suggests that LTE friendly mobile spectrum (800MHz and 2.6GHz) would not complete until "
the end of 2013" (i.e. 2014 for the first services).
Happily the European Commission (EC) recently revised its rules to
allow existing 900MHz and 1800MHz spectrums to run LTE and WiMAX services too. The deadline for this is 31st December 2011, which means that the first UK LTE services could potentially surface by early 2012.
Meanwhile O2 UK has already hinted that LTE services could be sold differently to existing Mobile Broadband solutions. O2 envisages a kind of two-tier internet experience, where they make intelligent use of the new platform to
deliver only certain services at a faster speed (
details). Kind of like an "
M6 toll road" for content providers.