Posted: 13th Dec, 2009 By: MarkJ
Analyst firm Point Topic has posted an interesting breakdown of how it expects the governments £0.50p +vat per month tax (
Next Generation Fund) on all fixed phone lines (except low-income social telephony services) to work. The tax itself is designed to help finance the roll-out of future broadband services to 90% of Britain by 2017 (raising an estimated £175m per year).
Point Topic Explains
Based on some simple assumptions, our research shows that market demand alone should be strong enough to bring next-generation broadband to around 73% of the UK population. We estimate that, provided it was efficiently used, a cross-subsidy of £70m a year could extend coverage to another 19%. Reaching the final 8% will be more difficult, but with the Carter Tax able to raise at least £170m a year there should be resources to spare to do it.
The key revenue assumption behind this is that the equivalent of 60% of present-day broadband users will be prepared to pay an extra £1.50 per month (including VAT) to get the benefits of next-generation broadband, rather than current products.
The matching cost assumption is that the average investment required to provide fibre-to-the-cabinet (FTTC) broadband to a single street cabinet, able to deliver over 40Mbps to each user in its service area of about 1.6 sq km, will be £50,000. We assume this will be amortised over 10 years with a regulated rate of return of 8%.
On this basis it turns out that next generation access needs about 300 customers per square kilometre to be viable on a purely commercial basis – corresponding to a total broadband density of about 500 lines per sq km after allowing for the 60% take-up assumption.
Point Topic also correctly makes the point that simply building out new networks that advertise hundreds of Megabits per second (Mbps) won't be good enough, unless there is a Quality of Service (QoS) behind it to help keep a sustained and reliable transfer rate. They also claim that the 2017 timescale is un-ambitious and could be brought forward by two full years.
Point Topic Explained
Although BT has committed to achieving next-generation coverage of 40% of the UK by the end of 2012 our current forecast is that it will slip by a year to end-2013. But by then BT and its competitors should be rolling out at the rate of 4m more homes and businesses passed every year. Even just maintaining this rate would take them to the 25m level needed for 90% coverage by mid-2017. A target of 2015 for 90% coverage would set a more appropriate challenge.
It should be noted that Point Topic is not taking sides; they are merely examining how the tax could be used. Elsewhere concerns continue to exist about the government’s intention to keep the tax going after its 2017 target is met (i.e. like road tax, which doesn't all get spent on roads).
There are also fears about the difficulty in gaining fair distribution of the money and the addition of VAT on top of the tax (tax on a tax, how nice). It’s often suggested that a wiser course of action would be to cut the fibre tax, thus making it more cost effective to deploy next generation fibre optic broadband services via the private sector.