A new report from analyst firm Digital TV Research (DTVR) has warned that UK pay TV revenues are fast reaching maturity, while broadband based IPTV services are "unlikely to ever make too much headway" in the country.


The report represents bad news for the key Joint Venture partners in YouView (Project Canvas), a UK subscription-free and broadband ISP based video-on-demand and catch-up TV ( IPTV ) service. Several internet providers, such as BT , TalkTalk and possibly Vodafone UK, are expected to start offering related services during the first half of 2012.

So far IPTV solutions haven't had much luck in the country because Sky's ( Sky Broadband ) Satellite platform and Virgin Media UK's cable setup have a tight grip on the market. Not to mention the lack of adequate broadband connectivity outside of Virgin's platform. Meanwhile the BT Vision IPTV service has only managed to attract about 600,000 customers (BT originally aimed to have more than 2 million).

Digital TV Research claims that less than 1 million UK homes will pay for IPTV services by 2016, which will keep related revenues low (£137m). This suggests that DTVR is not expecting YouView or similar services to have any significant impact upon the market, which is perhaps a bit presumptuous (we still don't know what the service itself will look like).

By contrast the wider UK markets pay TV revenues are forecast to reach £5.6bn in 2011, up by £2bn on 2006. However, revenues are only expected to climb by another £151m to reach £5.8bn in 2016. YouView might well have missed the boat.