Better Rural Broadband and Mobile Could Boost UK Economy by £65.1bn

New research from network operator Virgin Media (VMO2) and economic consultancy Cebr has claimed that £65.1bn could be added to the UK economy and employment could be increased by 6.8% (creating an additional 284,000 new jobs), but only provided all rural areas get access to “excellent digital connectivity“.

According to Ofcom’s data (here), some 97% of UK premises are already within reach of a 30Mbps+ capable fixed-line broadband network, which falls to 73% for gigabit-capable speeds, while just 1.4% are unable to access speeds of 10Mbps+ (USO level). As for mobile connectivity, 4G reaches 80-87% for geographic coverage across all operators, while 73-82% of premises can get outdoor 5G coverage via at least one operator.

Sadly, rural areas are often the last to benefit from digital connectivity upgrades, which can leave areas such as tourism, agriculture, manufacturing, and small businesses at a disadvantage. But the new report – The Great Rural Revival – suggests that solving this could deliver a huge economic boost.

However, the report is fairly short and basic, which is probably because it was based on an Opinium survey of just 1,096 rural respondents with a decision-making role on tasks related to digital connectivity. VMO2 and Cebr then used this to derive the difference of quality in rural and urban connectivity, and by how much turnover and employment could increase if rural businesses had “excellent digital connectivity“. Take with a pinch of salt.

Biggest Benefits from Excellent Rural Connectivity

➤ The sector as a whole would grow turnover by 10.5% – a rise of £65.1 billion across businesses in current prices. Further, employment in rural areas would grow by 6.8%, equivalent to creating 284,000 new jobs.

➤ The East of England would benefit most from digital connectivity upgrades, unlocking a £12 billion boost for the local economy and 42,000 new jobs.

➤ Other regions set to benefit include the South West, where the local economy could unlock £7 billion and benefit from 39,000 new jobs, as well as Wales, where £5 billion could be unlocked alongside 25,000 jobs.

➤ Rural tourism businesses could increase turnover by 9.9% (equating to an extra £842 million per year) and boost employment by 3.8% with improved connectivity.

Overall, our impression of reading this research is that VMO2’s report is more focused on promoting the operator’s own efforts to upgrade mobile and broadband connectivity, rather than in actually doing a deeper analysis of the issues. For example, the report highlights VMO2’s recent Starlink trial in remote Wales (here), while noting their 4G upgrades under the ‘Shared Rural Network’ programme, as well as their planned full fibre upgrades and so forth.

Jeanie York, Chief Technology Officer at Virgin Media O2, said:

“At a time when communities across the UK are struggling, this new analysis demonstrates how improved rural connectivity could herald a Great Rural Revival. The last decade has seen fixed and mobile networks rolled out to new corners of the UK, and now the transformational potential of connectivity has been made clear with the ability to unlock £65 billion of new growth in rural areas.

Through working closely with industry partners, the UK Government, planning authorities and landowners, we can deliver the essential network upgrades that will help to bridge the rural-urban connectivity divide, provide faster and more reliable coverage and unlock new jobs and growth in the process.”

One of the biggest problems with this report is that they’ve defined “excellent connectivity” in a very unspecific way, basing it off a vague score of ‘10’ for both fixed and mobile connectivity when survey respondents were asked to rate the quality of their connectivity. This was then used alongside questions around anticipated turnover and employment changes to calculate the impact to the rural economy as a whole.

In our view, that approach just seems a bit too weak and anecdotal to give an accurate picture, particularly as such opinions do not always reflect the actual availability of better networks (e.g. you might be unhappy with what you have, but may also be unaware that better connectivity already exists).

As we always say when such reports surface – trying to accurately gauge the economic impact of deploying faster broadband or better mobile is notoriously difficult, not least since most premises won’t be starting from a point of zero connectivity and many of the most common tasks (e.g. online shopping, banking etc.) only need a fairly basic connection. Not that better connectivity isn’t needed, but there can be an issue of diminishing returns.

The government are currently working to improve rural broadband and mobile connectivity via a variety of changes (e.g. softer planning rules, easier infrastructure sharing and better access to upgrade existing sites) and programmes. For example, there’s the £1bn industry-led Shared Rural Network (SRN) project that aims to extend geographic 4G coverage to 95% of the UK by the end of 2025 (it may also help the 5G rollout).

On top of that, there’s also the £5bn Project Gigabit rollout that aims to ensure that a minimum of 85%+ of UK premises can access a gigabit-capable broadband ISP connection by the end of 2025, before possibly reaching “nationwide” (c.99%) coverage by the end of 2030 (here and here). Not to mention various other programmes across Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Finally, a number of technology trials are also being conducted to test Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) and LEO satellite based broadband solutions for rural areas (examples here and here).