The next generation wireless standard, WiMAX, is expected to eat into the market share of 3G and xDSL broadband services, perhaps even more so than first thought. So claims a new white paper from research firm TelecomView:

WiMAX offers high-speed wireless data connections over a range of around 30 miles. The technology features both increased range and download speeds compared to WiFi (802.11x), which is intended to provide coverage over small areas. Along with WiFi, other fixed-wireless broadband systems currently exist, including hardware that can deliver services over several miles. But many of these also require "line of sight" between a transmitter and receiver to function - WiMAX does not.

TelecomView estimates that WiMAX will capture more than 40 per cent of the wireless broadband market, leaving 3G with less than 60 per cent in 2009. In addition to stealing market share from 3G, the report suggests that WiMax will also be a threat to fixed-line high-speed broadband services.

"Our forecasts show that WiMAX will be the clear winner amongst the new high-speed wireless technologies," said Ian Cox, co-author of the report. "WiMAX will pick up 70 per cent of this new market segment by 2009 due to its higher performance and flexibility compared to the alternatives. 3G will be important for its mobility, but WiMAX will directly compete with DSL."

That's quite a prediction for a technology that's yet to resolve certain 'standards' difficulties, yet the DSL style 'global standard' does rest strongly in its favour.

Ultimately it will be for practical trials to determine if the predictions above come true. History has shown that even technically superior services can hit a brick wall when they least expect it. More @ The Register.