Opensignal Predict Network Impacts of Vodafone and Three UK Merger
Network benchmarking firm Opensignal has today published a new study to examine the mobile (4G and 5G) network coverage and performance impacts of the proposed mega-merger (here) between mobile operators Three UK and Vodafone. Suffice to say, improvements are expected in both areas.
The merger, which will see Vodafone retain a 51% slice of the business and Three UK (CKH) hold 49%, is currently about to enter a deeper Phase 2 competition review after concerns were raised over negative impacts on consumer pricing and competition (here). But both operators have otherwise promoted the deal as something that would be “great for customers, great for the country and great for competition,” while also resulting in a major £11bn investment to upgrade the UK’s 5G mobile (broadband) infrastructure and network coverage.
In the new analysis, Opensignal leverages crowdsourced data collected from their users on the two networks today, to offer insights into the potential projected future mobile coverage of the combined operator post-merger (i.e. it doesn’t consider wider issues of competition, regulation or financial impacts etc.), which will hold a combined UK customer market share of 32% (c. 28 million).
The results of the new analysis of user experiences suggest the merger will allow users on the combined network to enjoy a “Coverage Experience” that rivals O2, the current market leader for that specific category, according to Opensignal data. The newly merged network will have a Coverage Experience score of 8.8 points on a 10-point scale, placing it joint-first (i.e. this is an uplift of 16% from 3’s current Coverage Experience score, and an 8% uplift from Vodafone’s current score).
Post-merger, Vodafone users may also see their 5G Coverage Experience score rise to more than double (+106%) the current score. By comparison, Three UK’s network, which currently provides a much wider geographical extent of 5G coverage, would enjoy a more moderate uplift of +9%.
According to Opensignal, “If the two merging operators were treated as a single entity in our most recent UK Mobile Network Experience report, they would have won eight award categories, closely trailing EE’s haul of 10 awards,” said the analyst. Such an outcome would leave O2 (Virgin Media) as only being able to win a single award.
However, it’s important to take Opensignal’s projections with a pinch of salt, primarily because there are still a lot of unknowns. For example, it’s expected that the merged company may be required to divest some of their radio spectrum holdings to rivals, which is something that can have a significant impact on network coverage and performance. But until we know the detail, it’s a hard one to judge.
Similarly, Three UK will need to unpick their existing network sharing agreement with EE (BT), while Vodafone will need to do the same with O2 (Virgin Media) – this is a difficult problem due to the complexity of such arrangements and issues of commercial sensitivity between operators. After that, the merged company would no doubt look to decommission some overlapping sites, which can have both positive and negative impacts.
Suffice to say that Opensignal’s projections can’t factor in what they don’t yet know, thus they’re subject to a lot of uncertainty, depending upon the outcome of the CMA’s investigation. Ofcom’s auctions of future 5G friendly spectrum bands are also being delayed until after the merger is approved, which creates another point of uncertainty.
Mark is a professional technology writer, IT consultant and computer engineer from Dorset (England), he also founded ISPreview in 1999 and enjoys analysing the latest telecoms and broadband developments. Find me on X (Twitter), Mastodon, Facebook and Linkedin.
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O2?!
The complex sharing arrangements between Vodafone and O2 (Beacon/Cornerstone), and Three and EE (MBNL) are the thing that boggles my mind in working out how this merger would work ‘fairly’ – as it wouldn’t be on for the newly merged Voda3 to just reap the benefits of being in both camps at once.
That’s one of the things that has been raised by the CMA, primarily on the idea of data sharing so a combined network would know about all competitor expansion plans.
From my very layman prospective I’d imagine the combined network would have to offer legally binding preferential terms for the sharing networks.
That’s ignoring the whole competitive and pricing side of the argument.
Most of the major mobile operators are either already in the process, or have already completed, some divestment of their UK mast sites, usually handing control to separate companies that can then make access available at wholesale.
Suffice to say that, while complex, I don’t think there’s necessarily a huge barrier to an agreement being done to solve this aspect of the merger.
I believe Vodafone and O2 have separated their mast and cell sharing in cities but continue to share outside the cities, like here in the Vale of Glamorgan, they took down the 4g mast and put up one of the newer ‘phase 8’ masts with 4g & 5g together. Three and EE are also doing the same with Three pushing forward on putting up quite a few new masts around the county. My coverage from Three has been great especially over the last few years and it’s exciting to see more 5G sites light up!
But it’ll be interesting to see how things change once Three and Vodafone merge. I’m split on my thoughts about it.
I stopped reading at “the network is expected to rival that of o2, the leader”
What a load of complete cobblers.
It’s on about coverage. O2 does have the most coverage, it’s just a fair amount of that is still on 2g or 3g. EE has more 4G than O2 but less overall coverage.
I too find it hard to believe O2 has the best coverage and I’ve been cell mapping all 4 networks for years. The dropouts on O2 are shocking, presumably the coverage includes 2G/3G/4G/5G.
It does include 2G and 3G. Hence the term “Coverage”. Not “data performance”.
To be fair to O2. I see 2G a lot more on it than EE but its rare to have no service.
I see no service on EE a lot more, but when I do see service its normally always 4G.
This is why I have 2 sims, a voice line on o2 with a bit of backup data for less than a tenner. Then a data sim with EE or 3 from scancom. Best of both worlds for about £20- £25 a month.
Yes but most of the time you can’t make a stable call when anyone can understand you over O2 2G.
3’s 5G coverage map in this article seems to be nothing like the actual 3 coverage map. Is this a future coverage map?
Three’s 5G coverage map is significantly outdated, they don’t seem to update it much at all. Here there are at least a dozen locations that have had 5G enabled for over half a year yet they are not on their coverage map. I used to use ofcom’s coverage map more but that has since stopped working correctly. The article seems to suggest these maps are the result of crowd collected data which is likely more up to date.
Mike is correct.
For example, judging by Threes 5G map there is no 5G in my town, but the reality is that we have over 70% coverage. Near one of the masts I get 1.4gbps.
That post-merger score looks pretty good to me, crack on? Huge benefits
Huge benefits for Vodafone users. I’m not so sure the Three users will benefit.
*Sent from 3/Vodafone dual SIM phone
neither network have any plans to raise prices….until they do.
It’s bad for the consumer and should not be allowed to go ahead.
The merger between orange and t-mobile created the most expensive mobile network in britain.
They never had any plans to reintroduce roaming charges after Brexit either, until they did.
The big scandal is that of mid-contract price rises.
Should not be allowed to occur.
its is big disasters in history bue to handling of nerwork. three Uk have worse network team,
For me, I’m more concerned why Opensignal would publish something like this.
As has been pointed out in the article above it makes no sense as there are too many variables which are unknown, not least the spectrum.
There seem to be a lot of articles coming out of Opensignal which appear to be sponsored/paid for by interested parties.
Opensignal should be transparent about this.
Until Goverment decides on security concerns this is pointless chatter.
I also understand Three are under investigation for a significant crime against the Public. What be grateful to hear if anyone has more information?
Nothing of the sort has happened, all that is happening is a deeper investigation into the effect the merger will have on the industry and the public at large.
Don’t trust the nonsense from the likes of GB News etc.
All I can say is that it relates to ICNIRP declarations on planning applications.